I admit to having a sentimental favoritism for a Member hailing from my own hometown - and he's certainly entitled to an opinion but his persistent misstatement of market fundamentals irritates. It might sit easier if he even bothered to read a freaking EIA report and cite data from it in lieu of doing the easy millennial thing and cherry pick a YouTube clip. This "risk off" concept he likes to use just illustrates my point. Oh well. I tried. A real oil trader will of course pay very very close attention to an EIA report. And what Platt's and half a dozen other expert private resources have to say about things. And why a market in pronounced backwardation is screaming a bold truth at you.
Late cycle trades show commodities dislocating from risk assets...i.e. they move inversely to them. This is mainly because it's the "higher" commodity prices that usually end the current credit cycle. Put more simply, higher oil prices will push risk assets lower, not the other way around. Second, please share what these "bargain" risk off choices are.
Bro, do you even watch the ZZ strips? They are trading at 5 year highs at the current moment. They are breaking out! ZZ1819 is pushing $6. That's called steep backwardation for you home gamers.
That assumes this is a late cycle crash. 2010, 2011, and 2015 & 2016 weren't either. They're in my post history.
Dude, this is a weekly chart going back 3 years for the current 12 month strip (ZZ1819). This thing is rocketing hard to the upside. THIS is what steep contango is. Notice how we were in contango until Oct of last year. Once this baby went into backwardation it was Goodnight Irene.
Oh dear God, that chart is a year old! It stops in Jan 2017! We have been exploding to the upside right "after" your chart stops. LOL.
ECF, you seem to be confusing what bone mentioned previously... You come back with... The EIA and the IEA are two separate bodies. Do not link what the EIA "said" with a link from the IEA. Just hope that clears up some confusion?