The topic is your incessant idiocy...Newsflash: data looks the best when equities are topping out...Now go datamine some more bullish data for us, skippy.
His head would have exploded...It would make his list of "extreme forecasts" and he'd probably start another thread in feedback about how unfair life is for him...
GDP in China is still growing around 7% per year. Not sure what you want to restart, 11% growth isn't sustainable, but that hardly matters unless you are forecasting profound wealth for the world; you are instead forecasting the opposite. If China was in a mild recession, would the US go into a Depression ? No, not even in that scenario. In my opinion, the US economy will succeed or fail regardless of China, but if China grows and US based companies profit from that growth, it's a relevant positive. US economy has done well in the past with almost no business with China.
it was forecast to grow at 7.5% at the beginning of the year and forecasts were cut throughout the year (average economist has china growing at 6.8% this year), and a few rate cuts won't keep it from slowing - recession for china is around 5% growth Couple this with a few rate hikes by the FED into a bearish market, drying up liquidity even further, could be catastrophic. When has the US done well when China was slowing like this? Name just one scenario in the last 20 years.
Raising interest rates would send stock market into a definitive downtrend as borrowing costs in percentage terms would greatly increase, if you lift say 0.5 to 0.75 it's a 50% increase.
This illustrious poster predicts a global economic recession in as little as 12 months, despite the IMF projecting 3.1% growth in 2015 :
I haven't the slightest why you're so incredibly optimistic given the shit-ton of underlying economic issues out there. You do realize grow and recede is also a normal cycle, right?
Yes 12-18 months Forget about projecting growth...a recession is defined as the fall of gdp for 2 successive quarters ....do you not see every central bank around the world lowering interest rates just to keep their gdp from falling ever so slightly...once the world has cut rates to zero whats next.....everyone is following the US like they think we got out of the crisis with zero problems, little do they know of the significant problems that lie ahead....zero rates...trillions in debt and trillions in stimulus has destroyed what this country used to stand for...how many times are we going raise the debt ceiling and print more money to make wallstreet happy....the game is almost over..
Exactly, why do you think the fed is putting off month after month ..year after year....they want the most perfect scenario to raise rates...guess what...they are NEVER EVER GOING TO GET THAT PERFECT scenario...