It's finally starting to mean something on the DEM side. Obama has huge momentum and is leading in the legitimate delegate count. Hillary had a ton of pre-committed delegates. If those are removed, then Obama is winning. I'm looking forward to the debate tonight.
Mac pulled off the win in Florida by again getting the independent vote. Mitt again beat him amongst conservative republicans who made up 70% of voters. Hmm, not really: The Jan. 29 contest in Florida will be the first Republican primary closed to independent voters, Florida is a closed primary, which means that only registered party members may vote in their own party's primary. Strangely enough it seems that Huck is going to be the deciding factor in this race. He keeps stealing just enough conservatives away from Mitt to allow Mac the win. The same will happen on Feb 5. There are about 6 states that Mitt would likely win if Huck dropped out. But as he stays in, Mac wins by default when he gets all the moderate votes. I am yet to see a shred of evidence that Romney is the second choice of Huckabee supporters. If anything those who support Huckabee because of his faith will not vote for a mormon, the pro-lifers will not vote for a flip-flopper on this issue either. Don't get me wrong, I prefer Romney to John McAmnesty, I just disagree with your conclusions.
It is true that florida is supposedly a closed primary, but I'm looking at all the exit polls. 17% of all GOP voters called themselves independents. Mac got 44% of them compared to Mitt's 23%. It was a dead heat at 33% each amongst those calling themselves republicans. When you then consider whether people call themselves conservative, moderate, or liberal. Mac dominated moderate and liberal with 43% and 49%, compared to Mitt's 21% and 24% respectively. Among conservatives Mitt dominated with 37%, with Mac second at just 29%. The assumption that more Huck defectors will go to Mitt comes from the idea that the vast majority of Huck voters call themselves either conservative or very conservative. With very few calling themselves moderate or liberal. This is almost an exact copy of Mitt's support, While the majority of Mac's supporters call themselves moderate or liberal. My assumption is that conservatives in general are more likely to switch to the other conservative. While religious prejudice probably has something to do with it, Mitt also won among those calling themselves Christians. Mormons made up less than 1% of the vote. Huck obviously had a disproportionately large number of supporters calling themselves Christians. I would then assume that those would more likely choose the other most popular candidate among the Christian set. Statistical analysis tells the same story, which is probably why most political analysts regardless of affiliation are saying the same thing.
Unfortunately: Following Pew, it does not seem that Romney is the second choice of a plurality of Huckabee voters or McCain voters. The situation in Florida might be different than what Pew finds on the national level, but I doubt it is significantly so. My sense is that if Floridians bolt Huckabee after he loses South Carolina - a plurality will go to McCain, not Romney. Similarly, if they bolt McCain - a plurality will go to Giuliani, not Romney. Generally, Pew and other pollsters have found Romney in third or fourth place when it comes to second choices. Pew also finds that 20% of Republicans will never vote for Romney, making him more "unacceptable" than McCain or Giuliani. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/01/can_mitt_catch_on.html
That's an interesting read but it is 2 weeks old and things have shifted quite a bit. On a national level during that time, Mac has gone from 23% to 28%. Mitt has increased from 13% to 21%. Huck has decreased from 20% to 19%. But you might be right. I don't think Romney gets it either way, but all the exit polls seem to indicate a much stronger case for him in a 1-to-1 race.
The DEM debate was a complete snoozer. Looked a lot like the Florida debate on the GOP side. Both candidates becoming very civil and neither really going on the offensive. Looked and sounded more like the academy awards than a presidential debate. The candidates would exchange compliments and say how great the supporters are, then the camera would go out for a close up of a movie star nodding and clapping. IMO, Hillary has herself in a tight spot. Obama has tons of traction and at this pace will likely edge her out for the win. The problem is that when she attacked to slow him down it sort of backfired on her. IOW, she has to win on the grounds of likeability and experience. In both areas she is found wanting. but she is doing a decent job at playing the experience card against a no-experience-at-all opponent. I see the margin within 100 delegates after Tuesday.
Well, Mitt seems to have a knack for picking up the states with unbound delegates. He won Maine in a landslide, which puts the delegate count as follows: Mac -- 97 Mitt -- 92 Huck -- 29 Paul -- 6 My most recent estimates for Super Tuesday have Mac coming out in the lead with about 600 delegates. Romney trails with about 400 and Huck comes in under 200. Paul will likely have about 50 at that time. I don't think it will happen, but if Huck decides to bail after Tuesday and gets behind Romney, that would pretty much tie things up and it would be a fight to the finish.
first of all fk you for the "non-sense" comment. and your comment about wishing mitt had paul's message? that shows me you are completely ignorant about the dynamic. the only reason mitt is a front runner is because he sold out a long time ago. ron paul is unique.. anyone else with his message would have been taken out a long time ago. paul has credibility because he is brilliant and has a very long and outstanding track record. mitt rides around for 12 hours with the family dog strapped to his car roof. mitt is a chickenhawk war monger with 5 healthy sons that refuse to serve their country. instead, they ride around the country in an RV eating pizza and "punking" dad.
ron paul will get a third of the delegates from Maine.... the caucus was a beauty contest and was non binding.