I figured since nobody else is posting this, I might as well. The primary process is a strange beast with each state doing things differently. Generally speaking it isn't a straightforward task of assigning delegates based on proportion of the popular vote. For example, Huckabee got 34% of the Iowa popular vote, but currently has 43% of Iowa delegates. This is huge in some of the winner-take-all states where a candidate might have 20% of the popular vote but only get a paltry 5% of the delegates in the end. On this thread I will post the current delegate counts for each candidate. This includes delegates whom are pledges to a certain candidate even though that state hasn't held its primary yet. Republican Romney --- 44% with 26 delegates Huckabee --- 34% ; 20 Thompson --- 10% ; 6 McCain --- 5% ; 3 Paul --- 3% ; 2 Guliani --- 2% ; 1 Hunter --- 2% ; 1 Democrat Hillary --- 56% with 124 delegates Obama --- 22% ; 69 Edwards --- 16% ; 48 Richardson --- 6% ; 19 Obviously Hillary has the most pre-vote support of any candidate. It will be interesting to see if/when the lead changes on the Dem side.
I thought I might also mention that I did an analysis of the delegate stripping fiasco of states bumping their primary forward to have more influence. On the Dem side, the polls have things so close right now that it is hard to determine which candidate was hurt the most by this. The GOP side however, is quite clear. Romney got screwed most by states moving their primaries forward. This is partially due to his early state strategy where he wanted to establish a comfortable lead early on. Most of these early states had half of their delegates stripped for breaking the rules. In the end, Romney likely lost about 40-45 delegates going into Super Tuesday. To put that into perspective, that is enough to offset the pounding he is going to take in either New York or California.
Just one more comment on this topic since I just briefly mentioned it. Hillary had more than 10% of the delegates needed to win the nomination before the voting even started. When considering this I have to admit that if Obama or Edwards pull it off. It will be the biggest upset I've ever seen.
Current counts are as follows. Republican Romney --- 42% with 30 delegates Huckabee --- 30% ; 21 McCain --- 14% ; 10 Thompson --- 8% ; 6 Paul --- 3% ; 2 Guliani --- 1.5% ; 1 Hunter --- 1.5% ; 1 Democrat Hillary --- 55% with 183 delegates Obama --- 23% ; 78 Edwards --- 16% ; 52 Richardson --- 6% ; 19 Hillary was definitely the shocker last night, but I think she has McCain to thank for that. Many independents expected to go with Obama ended up staying with McCain. Obama also got hammered by the women vote. 40% of independents voting GOP went with McCain's ,and the majority identified themselves as moderate/liberal. This was more obvious when Dems were asked which GOP candidate they would support. McCain was the huge majority there. Most indie voters who went Dem also sided with Obama, but not enough of them ended up on the Dem side. Also keeping the streak going is Huckabee. An enormously disproportionate amount of Evangelicals votes for Huckabee. 30% of evangelicals voted for Huckabee when he only got 11% of the vote.
After listening to much analysis I really have to admit that I'm floored by a couple things. The first is that certain people were suggesting that Clinton would be gone shortly after NH if she got beat. Absolute nonsense! Second, and just as amazing, are those who say Romney is getting crippled and is almost out of it. If someone had to be named as the front-runner in the GOP race right now, it would be Romney as he has over 40% of the delegates so far. In a 5 man race, consistently pulling 30% of the vote is pretty good. Yet somehow Romney is almost out of it, while Giuliani with only 1 delegate so far is the expected victor.
My prediction on delegate count going into Super Tuesday on the GOP side are as follows. Huckabee -- 73 Romney -- 70 Giuliani -- 46 McCAin -- 32 Thompson -- 14 Paul -- 4 SC and Florida being winner-take-all states is key. Huck obviously benefits most from SC and Giuliani from Florida under current predictions. If Rudy doesn't win Florida it is over for him. Huck can withstand an upset in SC though. It'll cost him 15 delegates, but he has enough momentum. I really don't see McCain robbing him of SC, but Thompson might just steal enough Huck votes to put McCain in the lead there. In that case, Romney becomes the favorite.
Interesting analysis and far more valuable than the media's breathless predictions that whoever doesn't win some tiny state's primary is out. It seems to me the rational strategy for the rep candidates now is to slow their spending and plan on hanging around as long as possible. Then you hope to get it to a two man race, and anything can happen, particularly if the other guy is McCain or Huckabee.
Analysts seem to forget that the system allows the candidate with a few golds and many silvers to win. It's all about delegates, not about 1st place finishes. Unfortunately for Giuliani, it really does hinge on Florida. Without a win there, NY and Cali won't win it for him. He'll be more than 60 delegates behind at that point and the race is much closer in Cali than he'd hoped. Talk about placing all your eggs in one basket. Romney has started the strategy you outlined above. Pulled his ads from SC and Florida to conserve money. He also started raising money for the general election.
I just noticed a mistake on my prediction spreadsheet. I forgot to rob Michigan of half it's delegates. The new numbers come out a bit different: Romney -- 63 Huckabee -- 60 Giuliani -- 46 McCAin -- 29 Thompson -- 14 Paul -- 4
The numbers above count on Romney winning Michigan with the delegate counts resulting in Romney -- 15 McCain -- 11 Huckabee -- 4 Nobody else should get any delegates as at-large delegates are proportional above 15% and I don't think anybody else comes in above 15% tomorrow. CD delegates are winner-take-all and there aren't many districts. Romney should take most of them and Huck might get a couple. I also haven't adjusted my predictions after the SC debate where Thompson really took it to Huckabee. Latest polls show Huck losing 5% directly to Thompson. Thompson just might have stolen a few C-D delegates but I think Huck still stands to gain all the A-L delegates in SC. Any significant move from Huck to Thompson means McCain might actually take the A-L delegates from Huck leaving Mitt ahead by about 10 votes.