lol...jeesh silly me. i know.....i almost forgot. also the high tide and lunar cycles are lining up with the seagull droppings that make an upward looking arrow on the sidewalk. guess its almost time to go long. Oh wait that could be a downward pointing gull poo arrow....guess it depends on which side of the arrow im standing.......oh god im overanilizing things. oh noes...... guess im doomed...thats it....time to call it quits
I didn't say you were doomed smarty. Just said it's a waste of time to try to know exactly what is causing the action you are seeing right in front of you. What's causing the action? BUYERS AND SELLERS. That's it genius. But I have an idea - spend the rest of today, tomorrow, maybe the weekend and report back to us EXACTLY what has caused the volatility this past week with irrefutable evidence. Once you do that, I will concede that your time was spent wisely as you found exactly what was going on behind the scenes since that's apparently what you are after. Instead of asking people here, do your own homework. Crazy idea.
i know...just edited it. didn't mean to sound like a smartass. basically i agree with you beleive it or not. iv'e been at this for a few years and have learned from experience to react to the market when its not clear whats feeding the direction. sometimes like today just out of curiousity i like to know some of the why's if there are any. i think you will agree you didn't get to where you are today as a trader by not asking questions and trying to understand the basics of how it all works. its easy to sit back after years of hard work and finally success to armchair your oppinions to others. but it was hard work and trying to understand that allowed that opinion to be possible in the first place. i think one of the most valuable lessons iv'e learned in my few years is not to act like a smug asshole and think iv'e got all the answers even through success. i hope i never think im so good as to not have to keep asking questions and trying to know more. this has nothing to do with overanalyzing anything. you never know what tidbit of information will change or revolutionize your ideas.
actualy the african elephant's migratory pattern changes around june 19th. its pretty predictable, accounts for most volatility spikes
Ok lets look at this with logical explanations. Humans are superior to the rest of the world in one and only one manner, the ability to reason and think. In that you might add plan, ponder, etc. When you stop thinking and just act on something that is reflexes correct? A prehistoric antity which we have developed in the process of evolution. But, what separates the humans reactions to the animals reactions. Except for the speed nothing. What happens when you react to something the message goes into your amyldala bypassing the cortex. To reason the message has to hit your cortex thus when you see something and you just react to it, you are just reacting. You are not thinking. THen lets think about this, communism does not wants us to think just react. Animals just react to what they see. What are you a human being with arational thought that in need to ponder or an animal/communist?
There's no right way or wrong way. The bottom line is if its profitable or not for you to know the reasons why the market does what it does. For some traders, knowing what's going on in the market helps with the flow from one trade to trade. In comparison, there are other traders using a different methodology that are just as profitable while being clueless why the market is going up or down. I myself need to know what's going on and it helps tremendously with my trading results in over a decade of trading. Simply, it really depends upon your methodology. My methodology requires that I understand the reason behind the price action because I do a lot of volatility analysis. Therefore, if your approach to the markets is profitable and you are achieving your goals... Keep doing it. Mark
i agree but do you think if conditions change and strategies stop working the more knowledgable trader might have an adaptive advantage? i would think the clueless trader that might have arrived at a working strategy through luck or as a hand-me-down would not be able to adapt....or a good many of them, where as i would think a disproportianately higher number of knowledgable traders would be able to survive and adapt to changing conditions..... for example if you have two traders that trade soybean futures, one trades pure technicals the other technicals and weather reports....now lets say drought strikes the heartland of soybean growers......a very simplified example but i would think the guy who trades both technical and has weather report knowledge might have an edge..... when the market changes and trader #1 keeps going short and gets hammered when his MACD rolls over with price but price rebounds unexpectedly and keeps climbing i would think trader #2 would benefit with his knowledge either by avoiding certain signals or waiting for an unseen reversal before its evident. sure trader #1 can addapt and go with the flow but how much will he lose doing so as compared to trader #2? it is all about making money as we all will agree......as much as possible without loosing it.
one of you guys who's using esignal could plz post a chart of the emini-SP with a 5mn time frame and the adx 14 of today plz.. i need to check something as i 'm using another chart provider. thank you
ER - yes, I agree that asking questions is key to getting to where you are headed... We agree there. My point was just that with your general question of why is this happening could lead to a million different ideas as to why. I mean, you already knew that. I can post that b/c of the 1234 setup, that's why. Another post would say nope, it is b/c of the 5678 setup. Who's right? Both or neither or maybe one. The volatility and volume has been great on the ES and we'll see if the summer doldrums show up this year. Maybe not. Maybe they will. Time will tell.