CTIC - Time Spread into News

Discussion in 'Trading' started by livevol_ophir, Jan 13, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    From what I can gather the news is this:
    Cell Therapeutics' Pixantrone to get FDA oncologic drug review Feb. 10

    Naturally the Feb vol is going to be elevated as FDA news in small companies like this can make or break everything. However, while a slight decline in IV is expected for the next months, CTIC demonstrates a vast difference.

    Note the markets in the Feb and March 1 lines. Also the markets in the Feb and March 1.5 puts. With a bit of luck someone might be able to buy March options and sell Feb options for even (same price). Further, the company has earnings in March (a volatility elevating event).

    N.B. With commissions the analysis is non-trivial (i.e. not necessarily a slam dunk).

    Earnings in companies like this often times are non-events as everything is based on drug development and approval rather than quarterly operations. Having said that, any planned company announcement on unknown results is a volatility event - even if it is of reduced importance relative to "normal" companies.

    Getting the spread off for even may in fact be impossible as there isn't a great deal of liquidity. Further, with commissions, the even trade might still not be worth it. Whether or not the spread is worth 0.05 or 0.10 becomes a deeper analysis. Either way, it's an interesting study.

    This is not trading advice - it is trade analysis. This is simply one way to analyze a time spread in a very risky instrument.

    You can read details, prices, analysis on my blog here: