CTAinvestor Market Analysis

Discussion in 'Forex' started by ctainvestor, Sep 29, 2010.

  1. 09:08CET
    Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The USD is the main loser at the start of the trading day, with severe losses against the Euro, which is rallying way past the second Fibo fight of the last downleg @ 1.3520, currently trading @ 1.3630, and a bit overstretched in my opinion.The level we're in right now marks the first important dynamic resistance intraday, and opening shorts with 1.3655 stop is not a bad idea, despite the dark side forces interests of sending the USD t hell (yet again).

    Cable is going the same way although to a less extent than the EUR as the single currency is the main market dominant player at the moment. As said, Cable is hovering around 1.5875 as I write this, finding itself in the first important dynamic resistance of the day.

    The Swissy is again very close to its all-time lows set yesterday @ 0.9733, so not much to talk about a pair that is in free fall and needs some stimulus before being called a major again. Trying longs around this level and putting a stop if recent lows break might be just a good idea for fast pips.

    I'm not commenting on the Yen as I find it stupid at the moment. And neither will I comment on the damned and zero-technical Gold chart, which, oh surprise, made a new all-time high a second ago trading just around $1,315/oz.
  2. 09:10CET

    Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Things are heating up in USD's favor. Yesterday, I told you about the upcoming EUR/USD collapse (or sell-off), due to the fact that a very clear DIAMOND PATTERN on dailies broke the lower line @ 1.3820, and prices failed to regain that line twice, meaning that at least 1.35 is next. Also, at the same time, Gold is just about to complete a very nice H&S pattern on the 4hr chart, targeting at least 1,250-60 once 1,310 neckline gives way, so I'd suggest a sell-stop order below the neckline and go with the flow.

    Because that is what has to be done. Going with the flow. And going against losers, or at least not to be part of them, and with losers I mean retailers, who are beginning to show net USD short positions, for example in AUD/USD (minim target there is 0.95, so go for it and stop thinking the unit goes to parity again). Another cross that has shifted momentum is EUR/GBP, going net EUR long, which means 0.85-0.84 at least is next now.

    Here's how losers (retail traders) are positioning themselves at this hour. As you can see, EUR/USD is about to shift from net short to net long, and this is going to be a massive move for a 1.35-1.33 move. Also interesting to note that, despite today's -so far- decline, the number of USD/JPY longs are beginning to decrease, and oh well, if that one changes as well, we are talking of a big trend shift, of possible some 300-500 pips, in what is going to be a mid-term momentum shift. So my advice to you now, stop selling the USD, don't be that part of the loser-retailers and start looking for long opportunities on the greenback, now that all the monopoly QE2 talk is gone and will have no real effect in the market.

    1. AUD/USD
    52.11% 47.89%
    2. EUR/CHF
    58.88% 41.12%
    3. EUR/GBP
    56.45% 43.55%
    4. EUR/JPY
    53.91% 46.09%
    5. EUR/USD
    47.48% 52.52%
    6. GBP/JPY
    58.82% 41.18%
    7. GBP/USD
    42.19% 57.81%
    8. USD/CAD
    55.32% 44.68%
    9. USD/CHF
    70.33% 29.67%
    10. USD/JPY
    76.86% 23.14%

    Oct 28, 2010 09:00 GMT+0200
    Reading: %LONG / %SHORT
  3. At the Open. Usual Tuesday ahead? Not likely...


    Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Heavy losses for AUD and EUR at the start of the day, particularly at a time when one would've least expected them to happen, i.e, at a time when Gold is again up for the day (although it has not broken the dynamic resistance line @ $1,365, from where I recommend shorts), and GBP is not 'falling' that much. The USD remains the favorite currency these days, and we've even seen new short-term highs in USD/JPY, as the unit printed 83.70 overnight. The EUR/CHF crash has put some brakes to the general USD/CHF advance, but overall the picture looks quite clear for the greenback.

    On dailies, the reversal pattern seen yesterday in EUR/USD is not only targeting 1.3435 again, it is leading us to believe that the 61.8% of the last upleg, situated @ 1.3260, might just print sooner rather than later, and that's a fact. We have the unit with some positive divergences at this hour and it is Tuesday, so in other occasions I would've just issued a buy recommendation; not this time. Blame it on Ireland (that's the new game now...) or whatever you want, but even on a clear long call like the one I'm seeing on the screens at the moment I will not go with it, and rather sell rallies....even on a Tuesday.

    Before closing this opening post, let me give you how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour on brokerages. Long/Short ratio provided below. As you can see, short AUD/USD is the best thing to do for now, and the 0.96 target remains in place.

    Nov 23, 2010 09:20 GMT+0100

    1. USD/JPY
    75.21% 24.79%
    2. XAU/USD
    74.12% 25.88%
    3. USD/CHF
    70.91% 29.09%
    4. USD/CAD
    61.54% 38.46%
    5. AUD/USD
    52.30% 47.70%
    6. EUR/USD
    47.17% 52.83%
    7. GBP/USD
    43.21% 56.79%
  4. TRADE IDEA: Short Gold here @ $1,365, stop $1,380, target $1,340 (sent @ 09:15CET)