Oh man, I would be very scared to short Eth right now as I'm hearing there is a supply shock due to the Eth spot etf inflows and Eth treasury such as bmnr smash buying on exchanges, not sure if there is otc for Eth so they may just be doing it on exchanges
Now you’re making calls for Ethereum? That’s hilarious coming from the guy whose entire “analysis” is nothing but “up, up, up”. When was the last time you ever had bearish sentiment? Go ahead, try to find a single bearish post on Bitcoin from @johnarb… you can’t. He’s the dictionary definition of a delusional perma-bull.
I don't know anything about ETH, but I do hear the supply isn't fixed. So a supply shock is not nearly in the same league as a supply shock in Bitcoin. I don't know what needs to happen for more ETH to be released, but I do worry. I will unfortunately take the other side of this euphoria. In my opinion, the conditions are much different this time around than 2020 where free money was made available and people had nothing else to do but gamble since they were forced to stay home. As you point out, many coins are just basically at their ATHs, or not even (and too often, price for many things makes a double tops and collapses). Plus, the macro environment is absolute shit. The jobs market is collapsing, the real estate collapse is just getting started, and unlike 2020 where everyone agreed that we need to print to the moon to rescue everyone, I don' think that same sentiment is here this time. Trump's only plan now is to force Powell to drop rates and hide all the economic/jobs data. I just read that the new guy at BLS wants to skip doing monthly jobs numbers.... just not report them! Check out this post... his building is empty! One of the best replies was that with all the illegal immigrants gone, this is why there is no demand. I also watch lots of videos with Ed Dowd, and he concludes that the reason there was no recession in 2023/2024, which he and many people were strongly predicting, is because none of their models took into account the stimulus of 5-10 million illegals propping up the economy. That is all unwinding now. Now maybe bad news is always good news for markets, and we are all waiting for more liquidity, but I'm only cautiously optimistic, especially for anything but Bitcoin. But maybe the reason I'm poor is because I'm a permabear! LOL
You're right about Eth supply being unlimited, but in the short term, there could be a shortage if many of the Eth are not available on exchanges and are in smart contract defi platforms, the annual inflation of Eth is about 5% Proof of Stake rewards The things you mentioned are reasons to be bullish bitcoin "They" will print and debase the usd and add more liquidity, the s&p already broke ath, and all the liquidity will benefit bitcoin during the strongest time of the bull market It's going to be very nice for everyone, just be prepared and execute our plans, that is why I'm positioned ahead of the fomo parabolic phase now
I completely agree here. Ben made this post, and it makes a lot of sense to me. I really think alt season is going to be short lived. (but I say that as someone who has only been around 1 cycle and never really experienced alt season anyway... LOL) I've already put in orders to start selling off the last of my 16 SOL just a little higher, and I think I will be 80% out even before the $295 ATH. Also selling off most of ADA, and some Sonic and Pol that is clearly down still like 80 or 90%. Over the next few months, I want to be out of everything but Bitcoin. As for Bitcoin, I'd like to hit 200k with most of it... hopefully it gets there, and then start selling off, with hopefully some hitting Josh's 444k figure. But I can't bring myself being able to hold the bulk of it above 300k probably. As Tai Zen says, its all about life changing profits, and figuring that surviving on $2k per month in SE Asia is very possible, having many decades of savings secured to live this lifestyle is what I consider life changing. Of course I'm going to be around for many more cycles, but if I get greedy now, I might hate myself for fucking it up and having to wait another 4 years, if cycles even continue. I'd like to see no more than a 50% drawdown followed by ATHs in way less than 4 years.... that would be super cool, but we of course don't know how it all plays out. I will likely always have 25% or so in cold storage, but selling off the ETFs and buying back lower is I think the best strategy going forward.
I think you have a very good plan, I also have some targets that I will be executing on the way up, on my trading positions (alt, meme, perps, options) I do not plan to sell any bitcoin, but would like to increase if possible, that would be better, this cycle has flipped something in my brain which I think happened to a lot of bitcoiners, we now think of bitcoin as the unit of account I'm willing to ride the bottom of the bear market be it 70-80% from ath or 30-50% being suggested due to the different types of investors holding bitcoin I think this will be a very exciting Uptober and Moonvember, and if things work out well, I'm hoping to have over 20-30k of ulty for income during the bear market
Why not sell Bitcoin before the bear market and get an 80% gain at the bottom? It's almost a guaranteed return. With the new stablecoin regulation you can stake USDT and also stake whatever defi coin you have while you're waiting for the bull market
Because @johnarb thinks Bitcoin only goes up forever, his “targets” are just the product of whatever confirmation-bias rabbit hole he’s currently fallen in.
I've already sold bitcoin in the past... the truth is it's very difficult to sell the top and buy the bottom, plus all the tax implications My goal now is not to sell bitcoin, and to increase if I can, I see bitcoin as the life savings, and unit of account A house that is being sold for 5 btc today, but I already know in 10-15 years, that same house or even better, will be worth 0.1 btc but to your point on stablecoin and defi, I am not against having a position there also during the bear market, but everything depends on what happens in Uptober and Moonvember, if it's as good as I believe it will be lots of fiat for ulty and mstr shares, and hopefully enough stablecoin for defi yield farming and such https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/bitcoin-price-thread.315402/page-329#post-5387263
In that scenario bitcoin still sucks relative to dividends. You are projecting bitcoin value to be 5M by your example...let's say in 10 years to be nice. 10k invested 0.085 BTC Bitcoin reaches 5M FV: $425k BITO (Drip calculator) 10k invested FV with full drip is $7.3M! (0% dividend growth, 0% share growth, $0 extra investment)