Wow. Well deserved. Some suggest MSTR will underperform bitcoin just after an ETF approval because some who hold MSTR for bitcoin exposure will move $ out of MSTR and into one of the bitcoin ETFs. I understand that some of that would be offset because MSTR is leveraged to bitcoin. Anyway, something to consider.
Thank you very much, jbusse! It's not over until I have closed part of all the position for more than $27k, but I am very confident as long as bitcoin price is good (above $43k) I have seen this idea discussed on a few youtube videos and even on Twitter (X now) someone has laid out the argument there is no longer a need for all the MSTR-proxy-btc-stock investors I take a different view, but let me put a disclaimer that I have no formal training (i.e. college courses) in financial stock market. Definitely nfa, lol My take on MSTR is that its enterprise value is derived mostly from of its btc holdings, with a side-hustle of its mature business intelligence software The software business allows it to acquire more bitcoins by being able to issue debt convertibles, issue more stock (when MSTR price is high) to acquire more bitcoins, and use the operating profits to acquire more bitcoins imho, the stock market is mostly a casino, but there are strict rules that ensure market valuations are reflective of EV For instance, how else is Amazon valued at $1.5 T when it has never given a dividend, the shareholders are just buying it because the business is valuable, but that value is locked The market (and AMZN shareholders) are smart, they know if the price gets too low, they can just liquidate the business, break it apart and sell parts, like that dude on pretty woman movie Same thing with MSTR, which has a much simpler EV structure, mostly derived from the btc holdings and the price of bitcoin determines how high the value of its assets and thus MSTR EV The buyers of MSTR debt understand this. I remember last year they announced a debt offering and it was oversubscribed by over $1B The buyers of MSTR stock understand this. I remember last year Microstrategy announced they will issue more shares to buy more bitcoins and the share price went up (counter-intuitive on the surface, but the market goes deep analysis) Efficient market theory ------------------ To get back to the bitcoin spot etf's, why would I see that as a positive? I'm a sub-100 IQ but I do have a wild imagination at times What if it's possible for MSTR to partner with one of the ETF issuers like Fidelity and deposit say 10% of its bitcoin holdings to the ETF and get ETF shares in return And then Mircrostrategy announces this deal and say the ETF shares will be issued as special dividend to the shareholders, currently $48/share (0.0011 btc/share) And then Microstrategy announces it will issue 10% more shares to buy more bitcoins, if the price of MSTR goes up, MSTR will end up with more btc's Accretive to the shareholders. tl;dr bitcoin spot etf approval pushes btc price higher, MSTR share price goes higher
Maybe... so my plan of shorting PUT(s) on MSTR to carry the purchase of CALLs on BTC was still the win-win? Anyhow, until April ends, I'm not going to get too excited. I've seen what hubris does to people...
Oh man.. that sucks. I remember you even said you would add more collateral if needed, but clearly there was no time. I'm just reading up on this, and Twitter seems to be calling it a fat finger sell of $1.5B... but this could of course just be a joke. I'm replying to your post mostly to let you know I read it, but I clearly didn't want to "like" it...
Noted on the "like" Today was crazy day, it's probably the busiest day since I've been here in Asia, have not had time to look at the bitcoin price (or internet) until now, it's early evening. Spent some quality time with friends and family, catching up and all Anyway, now that I'm looking at the btc price, it literally went to my liquidation price and went back above $42k, so if I had enough collateral, I'd only be down 8.5k Usdt instead of the 20k Usdt collateral, and I'll still have an active trade position! So now not sure if I want to go back into the perpetual futures position or start trading altcoins with no leverage. I'm still up significantly on $Rune (tho it pulled back some, btc leads, alts follow) And the ones we miss cause emotional distress, I was looking at Equalizer dex (Equal) a month ago at less than a $ and said to myself I should buy 10k Equal tokens since the bull market is starting and the price is low, but like a deer in a headlight kept watching it and watching it, finally bought yesterday at $6.50sh but nowhere near 10k amount tl;dr, may trade alts with no leverage, no liquidation worries, instead of perp futures
I slept through this like a baby... still up a lot. Truth is, I wish things went down worse so I could load up some more.
Yea, someone leaked that for sure It's horrible news for bitcoin and cryptos in the US if it passes Unhosted wallet is a malicious attack. There's nothing unhosted about a Bitcoin wallet The very design of the open source software wallet is to have full control of the bitcoins and transfer to any address, anywhere in the world with no intermediaries (p2p), describing it as unhosted is an oxymoron The onramp/offramp (banks) are being closed off from US crypto users, but somehow, the cryptos have to be regulated like they are part of the financial system. Damned if you do, damned if you don't Anyway, it is what it is, hope the bill doesn't pass but it's gaining more support in the congress
I took a look at the numbers tonight. Down on all my BTC miners for the day. And my long BTC calls are down by over 5K alone, but... I'm going to ride this one out and still relax, still up big over the last few months. I consider this just temporary paper-losses. Looks like war on inflation is starting to look like the Western world may finally make it. Because of this, I bought again another round-lot of shares in Sonos today.