Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jan 3, 2022.

  1. ph1l

    ph1l

    I wonder if one would have needed permission to attend?:D
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    #801     Sep 15, 2023
    semperfrosty likes this.
  2. johnarb

    johnarb

    I'm not a fan of Blockworks (company behind the conference), many of their partner companies and investors are TradFi wall street fiat boomers

    But that has nothing to do with Eric's speech. You should look him up, he's an OG

    Eric can easily walk away from crypto, probably a billionaire in fiat value and yet he continues to run into crosshairs of the authorities, i.e. Shapeshift cease and desist, now he's active in multi-blockchain dex (Rune/Thorchain)

    He is not doing this to gain more fiat :D
     
    #802     Sep 15, 2023
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  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    I misspelled Erik. He's been mentioned on a few Bitcoin books, early Bitcoiner before 2012

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    #803     Sep 18, 2023
  4. johnarb

    johnarb

    An update on the MSTR calls position expiration 1/19/2024

    4 months to expiration, position is down. On July 13, 2023, it was profitable m2m $40k

    $27k risk capital

    What I think will happen in November-December Bitcoin price will be $50-70k and this MSTR calls options position will lbe profitable again

    [In order to capture the chart, I did all time period, so the loss is not accurate, added another $8k]


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    #804     Sep 19, 2023
    semperfrosty likes this.
  5. @johnarb I think you may wish to tread carefully with MSTR.

    My short PUTs-LEAP on MSTR has been amazing. I believe I was able to harvest almost half the premium within a couple months or less. It seems to make more sense for me to close and take the profit, instead of waiting a couple more years just for them to expire and get the other half of the premium.

    However, there is another thing to be aware of here. Even Saylor admits that the stock is being pumped up by people using it as an ETF proxy. And once the US gets flooded with BTC ETFs (like the rest of the modernized world), there will be a big sell-off of MSTR in order to swap to spot BTC in retail accounts.

    Ok, so technically one can argue MSTR will still lift due to BTC ETFs rising, but no one really knows for sure what will happen here.
     
    #805     Sep 19, 2023
    semperfrosty, jbusse and johnarb like this.
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    Update on the MSTR calls position expiration 1/19/2024

    about 3 months to expiration

    The position was worth $3k a couple of weeks ago, but things are better today, position went up over 100% lol, MSTR up 50 points rn, something something bitcoin price going up, prolly nothing...

    Another 100% move on the position tomorrow will put me in paper profits, cost-basis for position is $27k


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    #806     Oct 24, 2023
    jbusse likes this.
  7. I came very close today to closing a short-PUT on MSTR and taking profits. I am perhaps getting a bit greedy here by trying to bleed out more theta first.
     
    #807     Oct 24, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  8. johnarb

    johnarb

    1.5 years since this trade was initiated

    Been a wild ride on this long options calls position risk capital of $27k (cost of all the options in the position)

    At the highest m2m valuation, the position was worth $52k (may have been higher intraday)

    At the lowest m2m valuation a month ago (10/13/2023), the position was worth $2,500

    So from the highest 100% profit to the lowest 90% loss, here we are at about break-even

    lmao

    Expiration is in 2 months

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    #808     Nov 10, 2023
    NoahA likes this.
  9. Sprout

    Sprout

    On another note
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    #809     Nov 12, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    Closing the long 5 btc perp futures position and re-opening long 5 btc perp futures position

    This will allow me to unlock the funds and withdraw, only leaving a little over 20k usdt as collateral, liquidation will be updated on a follow up post

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    #810     Dec 5, 2023
    NoahA and semperfrosty like this.