Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jan 3, 2022.

  1. Canadian regulated exchanges allow staking of Solana & Cardano. They are government approved, licensed, and there is no intention to revoke this. What the US does to hurt itself, is ok with us. We're used to looking south and noticing America is too stupid to even switch to the metric system yet... but what can you expect from a nation woke enough to vote for Biden? Science is not a priority, obviously (it deals with evil facts & figures).

    In any case, I guess this means Canada will be making more Solana & Cardano ETFs for the oppressed people of the US soon. :fistbump:
     
    #771     Jun 9, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  2. To further add, I was wondering how long it would take HOOD to either get a Wells notice, or de-list their crypto in a panic. In any case, what difference does it make now? If it was a crime now, then they clearly committed a crime. It doesn't matter if the US is acting like the Spanish inquisition here. Everyone knows what they did... They need to be charged now or it's obvious favoritism is at play here. Let's just say, HOOD is very unlikely to ever be profitable now (and they never did even show signs of getting close). And to think Americans aped in at higher than IPO valuations!
     
    #772     Jun 9, 2023
  3. chelik322

    chelik322

    Regarding the possibility of HOOD receiving a Wells notice or de-listing their crypto, it's challenging to predict specific regulatory actions or outcomes. Regulatory processes can vary, and it's essential to allow the relevant authorities to conduct their investigations thoroughly.
     
    #773     Jun 10, 2023
  4. johnarb

    johnarb

    Very very interesting the way the alts are being priced right now

    Spookyswap is now 72 cents, Fantom is 23 cents (I have a small position) Morphex is 10 cents, Equalizer dex is $1.38 (I have some, rewards from a yield farm)...

    Very very tempting for me. I got some other stuff going on so would prefer to do it after a few weeks but I like these discounted prices

    NFA
     
    #774     Jun 10, 2023
    NoahA likes this.
  5. The irony is that the IV on the PUTs for COIN leaps hasn't even changed from where it was weeks pre-lawsuit. So again, looks like the market priced that in close enough, at least for the longer-dated PUTs.

    The odd thing, is that BTC should be spiking now, as it's the old safehaven when the shit-coins collapse like the penny-stonks they are. Dominance is up to 47%, which is something... maybe I was expecting a little too high of swapping here.

    The miners should be going up? Gensler isn't after BTC... I will sit on my synthetics and wait for the markets to get rational again.
     
    #775     Jun 10, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    Yield farming on Uni v3 Pepe-wEth again

    Small position on Pepe relative to before, but the yield is picking up as volume on dexes are picking up so this is better than hodling Pepe in the wallet with no yield


     
    #776     Jun 11, 2023
  7. johnarb

    johnarb

    #777     Jun 11, 2023
    NoahA likes this.
  8. I'm not so sure on that. It's only American citizens that will be locked out of OTHER coins. The rest of the 'free world' will be able to continue arbitrage and market-price-discovery will force a lot of selling of over-valued BTC to buy other coins.
     
    #778     Jun 11, 2023
  9. NoahA

    NoahA

    Finally got around to reading this article.

    So first, I highly doubt one key assumption.... "Coins exist on exchange for one reason, and one reason only — leverage gambling or simply selling. It is assumed that all two million coins on the top-12 exchanges are available for immediate sale, and can mostly be bought by stealth with no slippage (see next assumption)."

    As you know, I struggled with this for months. To assume that 2 million coins are available for sale simply because they are on exchanges is absurd. It could simply be that these people are scared to hold their own keys. Maybe a $1k allocation to bitcoin doesn't warrant a $100 to $200 wallet. Coins sitting on an exchange cannot be assumed to be there for a quick sell.

    I think the general message of the article is spot on, but figuring out how each week will play out is like going up the difficulty scale in trying to calculate a "vanity" address for your wallet. Perhaps it only takes a few days of calculations to come up with an address that starts with bc1john***, but incredibly harder to find an address that start with bc1johnarb***. (I saw this calculation before but don't remember the exact numbers)

    But the point of an accelerated rise is spot on and what I think about constantly. Yes, we will have people who sell when they double their money, or maybe hit a 5x. But when bitcoin gets going, it means everything else is falling apart, so why will anyone choose to go back to fiat unless its to purchase something like property perhaps, that they actually need? I fully believe that bitcoin will eclipse the market cap of gold, and eventually real estate. RE has lots of frictions selling, and never mind the cost of upkeep, etc. It only made sense during low interest rate environments, and even though a 5x did happen in the past decade or so in some places, I doubt we will see another 5x going forward. RE only makes sense for cash flow positive properties, and those are very difficult to find now.

    So I assume that any further selling, once some level of critical mass is achieved, will simply be not because you are taking profits, but because you are buying something you need. Bitcoin will come out as the superior asset to hold, and when this idea gets entrenched, where will the price be? There is 900 trillion out there in total total asset value. Just 1% of this right now means a bitcoin price over 10 times higher than today. Its simply mind boggling that the price isn't higher, and I would exchange every last dollar today if I wasn't worried that we might see cheaper prices when the economy falls apart in the part. An initial wave of deflation before the printing goes into high gear is I think the most likely scenario, so I'm hoping for sub 20k again on the bitcoin price. I hardly got any at 16k and would love another chance.
     
    #779     Jun 13, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    So, wrt the article, I really like the idea of an army of Bitcoiners that are just stacking and stacking sats and putting them away in cold storage, 100k here, 1m there, 10m here, 1 whole bitcoin there when a financial windfall comes

    In the same way a religious person does tithe to the church, not expecting any rewards in the short term, but way out in the future and in the case of religion, after the life on earth

    And yes, I agree with you that not all bitcoins on exchanges are available for purchase, as I personally have bitcoins on exchanges that are only there for storage

    When I first understood the value of Bitcoin, I was frustrated just like you, why is this thing so cheap, and not worth $10k each bitcoin

    I started buying bitcoin at $100 in 2013, it even dipped within the 2 weeks and then had a nice bull market it went to over $1200, but then bear market came and it crashed all the way to $150 over the course of 3 years erasing any paper profits I had

    I was telling everyone, friends and family how great Bitcoin is, like a Swiss bank account, but no need to sign up, it's available 24/7, can be accessed anywhere in the world, can transfer to anyone in the world

    And then today, many people can explain the value of decentralized, censorship-resistant, that cannot be confiscated money

    We have Greg Foss who has 30 years of experience in the credit markets explaining this is going to be a global reserve asset and should be worth $2M in today's money, or Michael Saylor who sees Bitcoin as digital property, digital scarce asset backed by the most powerful computing network that has ever existed

    It sucks that bitcoin is only $25k right now, but given all the shit that happened in the past 2 years, FTX collapse, BlockFi, Voyager, Celsius, Genesis, Gemini Earn, and a bunch of others going insolvent, it's actually surprising that bitcoin is not below $10k right now

    I don't know how low bitcoin will go as the US continues this regulatory attack...

    For this upcoming bull market cycle, I really like the idea of monetary premium that will move from real estate and bonds to Bitcoin and other crypto assets

    There's a monetary premium on assets as investors are trying to fight the fiat debasement, the stock market and real estate and the risk-free treasury bonds. I've heard arguments that NVDA and TSLA and FB and AAPL will continue to go up as they are acting as a safe haven SoV

    But if things line up nicely, we could see monetary premium move from RE and bonds to Bitcoin on this upcoming bull market

    The deca and centi millionaires have gotten a taste of what it's like having wealth trapped in a Blackstone REIT

    Billionaire Ray Dalio interview on CNBC explaining risk-less treasuries are actually high risk, yes, you will get paid in fiat guaranteed, but the value will be debased with inflation

    I think bitcoin price will hit $500K before the end of 2027

    Luke Broyles has some great videos on this subject







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    #780     Jun 13, 2023
    NoahA likes this.