Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jan 3, 2022.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    Missed my entry price by about $30, recalibrated to a $16,405 per the chart purple MA on trading view, but closes it got was $16,440sh

    And then bam! big green dildo... This is what's supposed to happen when there are no fake bitcoins and cryptos suppressing the prices

    One of these days Bitcoin will see a $10K green candle

    I gotta go back to holding positions overnight... of course that carries risks if there's a GBTC unwinding or Coinbase insolvency or anything like that, but I think it's worth the risk


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    #561     Nov 29, 2022
    NoahA likes this.
  2. johnarb

    johnarb

    Long btc perp futures @ $16,878 stop loss @collateral_liquidation

    Chased the trade per the Brazilian news...

    nfa

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    #562     Nov 29, 2022
  3. NoahA

    NoahA

    This is exactly what I'm thinking as well. It will be interesting then what happens on the futures side, and if any manipulator tries to force prices down. If enough people want to buy, run to exchanges, and then try and withdraw, force exchanges to also buy in order to meet withdrawals, the futures prices with have to play along.

    Seeing how FTX exposed how an exchange can be selling paper bitcoin, thereby suppressing the price by not actually sourcing the bitcoin from the market, it makes me wonder what all the other exchanges do. Even for this current spike, how does an exchange handle this? Assume customers have orders to buy that trigger. Does the exchange also have to ensure that its topping up their reserves of bitcoin, getting ready for withdrawls? Or are they playing market maker, internalizing all these orders, hoping to one day match it all up. In a crazy 10k candle, surely they will be shitting bricks if they are selling bitcoin they don't actually have and then have to source it. Clearly the exchange doesn't want to sit on too much inventory of bitcoin. Why by 10 bitcoins for $20k if customers don't end up buying it, and then it goes down to 16k so you're left with too much "inventory". But on the flip side, if they only have a few coins and customers start buying like crazy, how do they handle this? Since we can buy in seconds, but it will take them time to source the actual bitcoins, there must be some mechanism at work that I don't understand.

    You have no idea how giddy I am with excitement that something like this is now possible. This could never happen with gold or silver because no matter how much physical stuff you wanted to hold, the price could be so easily manipulated in order to keep it where the big boys wanted it. But with bitcoin, even though I'm sure much of the price is a result of trading by big firms, the act of removing supply for an asset that is both limited and completely transparent has to lead to real shortages, and this game can blow up in a big way for somebody on the wrong side.

    I would love to know how exchanges work. They offer relatively tight spreads, and your purchases are instant, so the exchange has to be a kind of money maker, but how do they control their risk?
     
    #563     Nov 29, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  4. johnarb

    johnarb

    There have been massive amount of withdrawal of Bitcoin and other crypto assets due to the recent collapse of FTX and it's still ongoing but my understanding of how an exchange like Coinbase is different than the way you described it

    Legitimate exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken will and should never sell bitcoins or other cryptos that are not already on their wallets

    Let's say Coinbase has 100K btc's and 80K belong to their customers and 20K to Coinbase

    Only 50k of those have a sale order at a given price, let's say the last btc is set at a price of $100K by their customer and let's say 100,000 rich Brazilians want to buy 1 btc each no matter the price, Coinbase will make a market using 20,000 btc's they own and every buy and sell they will control the order so that they have a spread they make money on

    But the very last Brazilian wanting to buy that last btc will be paying $100K+. Of course, along the way, some of the 30K btc's will start to see the price going up and may want to sell and other people may deposit btc to sell so the supply is constantly changing

    Anyway, at the end of the day, every single bitcoin should be available for withdrawal to a local wallet from Coinbase

    FTX was a criminal operation that is why 70,000 btc's were stolen and cannot be withdrawn by the customers

    The risk of exchanges is that they should have constant inventory, but they didn't buy at the very top, that's ET nocoiner price anchoring bullshit

    Coinbase has been around for over 10 years as well as Kraken, they have a constantly revolving inventory of bitcoins, some probably bought at less than $20 and some they bought at $69K and some sold at $69K and some sold at $21 through the course of time through their market making operations

    Mark Yusko has talked about this on several YT videos. JP Morgan pays $1 Billion every year in fines because of manipulating the gold price, but they make $20 B every year, They pay the fine without admitting guilt and most likely has the blessing of the US G

    Mark has mentioned that JP Morgan or other US G operatives could in theory be manipulating the Bitcoin price already through the use of futures, but CME is not going to be very effective since low volume, low open interest, not 24/7. CME btc futures are also cash settled and not physical bitcoins, heh

    [conspiracy theory is that SBF and FTX are Fed]

    FTX was the perfect venue for the wall street institutional traders, they trade 24/7/365 through their international offshore companies and branches...

    FTX shutdown was the best thing for Bitcoin and cryptos market. The players above got absolutely rekt

    The worst thing that can happen is for FTX to "somehow get funding" and open up operations again. That pretty much guarantees it's a Fed operation

    So anyway, gold and silver are easily manipulated because who takes physical delivery and then you'll have problems with verification some gold bars have been known to have other metals at the core, only the outside are pure gold

    No so with bitcoins and other crypto assets that can be withdrawn any time or any day, and now there's a new mindset for everyone to withdraw their cryptos from exchanges and other centralized entities and we hope this continues, so far it's been ongoing from what I read on CT
     
    #564     Nov 29, 2022
    NoahA likes this.
  5. NoahA

    NoahA

    I fully agree with this. Everyone now knows about self custody, and all we need is a macro economic event to push enough people into buying Bitcoin and taking it offline.
     
    #565     Nov 30, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    Update on the btc perp futures position entry price $16,878 stop loss @collateral_liquidation

    Volatile day today, but no plans to close the trade. Multi overnight hold


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    #566     Nov 30, 2022
  7. johnarb

    johnarb

    Closed long btc perp futures position @ $16,926

    Will go back to trading btc, there's too much crypto bear market ptsd from traders, the mode is sell every rally

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    #567     Dec 2, 2022
  8. johnarb

    johnarb

    Long btc perp futures @ $16,903 stop loss @ $16,750

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    #568     Dec 3, 2022
  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    Closed the long btc per futures position @ $16,984

    too early

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    #569     Dec 3, 2022
  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    Short bnx perp futures @ $63 stop loss @ collateral_liquidation (not by choice, holding overnight, going to sleep)

    I'm very late on this short, bnx was at over $126 yesterday

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    #570     Dec 4, 2022