Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jan 3, 2022.

  1. I've already planned to go back to the work force, so that every bit of $ helps in the upcoming wreckage. Once good paying dividend stocks drop low enough in PE I will start to borrow a bit on margin to snatch some more up.

    If the Merge goes through this year, then my spot Ether ETFs will roll in dividends and I'll use that to grab more securities too.
     
    #271     Jun 4, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  2. savoir

    savoir

    Seeing the macro trend does not equate to making money for most of us not in the VC set. There’s too much bearish sentiment currently to make me think the road ahead will be as people expect.

    Never underestimate the market’s ability to surprise most of the participants. More herding probably needs to take place before any stampede can have full effect.
     
    #272     Jun 5, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    There are a few macro investors who think the Fed cannot continue with this tightening much longer. They expect something major could break somewhere in the financial system

    We'll just have to wait and see, but inflation is their main concern from the higher ups
     
    #273     Jun 5, 2022
    Snarkhund, NoahA and savoir like this.
  4. savoir

    savoir

    The next two FOMC meetings are pretty much a foregone conclusion. Will the rest of the year be .50, .50, .50, .50, .50? That will require big cojones.
     
    #274     Jun 5, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  5. johnarb

    johnarb

    Very sad thread... This is why I don't actively trade. It is too difficult (for me)

    Anyway, it's a bear market, and the goal is to survive because there will be a lot of opportunities when the bull market is back


     
    #275     Jun 7, 2022
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    Another one...

    One thing that has helped me a lot is to be able to control my emotions because I've read way too many books on the psychology of speculations booms and busts

    Reminiscences... Trading in the Zone, PitBull, Market Wizards books, Fooled by Randomness. Be safe out there


     
    #276     Jun 7, 2022
  7. savoir

    savoir

    I’ve seen people lose it all who read a lot of trading books, took courses, had a “mentor,” etc. In the office I traded out of, a guy lost his account, several reloads, all the retirement savings he made in the restaurant business, and mortgaged his house.

    He still came to the office every day and stared at charts. The office manager wasn’t going to tell him to stay away. No one said it out loud but I’m sure the thought occurred to many of us he could do a Mark Barton. People who have always traded from home cannot relate.
     
    #277     Jun 7, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  8. NoahA

    NoahA

    As sad as both of these were, the fact that they went down to zero sucks, but its not the end of the world. There are lots of stories that end in negative equity, and some with even a huge tax bill from the previous year and no way to pay it.
     
    #278     Jun 7, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    That is a very sad story and I don't think anyone can help him. I have a family member who lost everything because of gambling addiction (casinos), house, car, family broke up

    One thing that scares me is to go back into debt, which is why everything we have is paid off and I pay credit card bill several times a month coz I do not like seeing a balance whenever I login to the website

    It's also the reason I'd prefer to buy a house 95-100% in cash

    I'd go back to work if or when the cash is getting too low to less than 6 months worth of living expenses, or sell a little bit of the crypto portfolio depending on the valuation
     
    #279     Jun 7, 2022
    savoir likes this.
  10. savoir

    savoir

    I think it’s sad if they bring innocent parties into it like a spouse or children. I saw one bad case that made me think about illnesses like cancer in a whole new light.

    Some (most?) people are not cut out to trade. Especially short-term trading. The smart ones try it and realize quickly it isn’t for them and move on. Those who are both smart and wise don’t even start because they know a priori they’re not cut out for it.

    I think if it’s just yourself, going broke in the markets is not a big deal. It’s a great advantage to start young with little money.
     
    #280     Jun 7, 2022
    johnarb likes this.