Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jan 3, 2022.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    Hey deaddog, saw your post on another thread on your understanding of Bitcoin and (not to be condescending) I agreed with all the important points

    My 2 satoshis on investing in Bitcoin is to have a short term, medium term and longer term holding which is up to the individual how they define such

    For me
    • 10 btc's and parts of it will not be sold until btc hits $1M (long term)
    • 5 btc's and parts of it will not be sold until btc hits $500K (medium term)
    • outside of the 15 btc's above, trade in and out in whatever time frame and whatever amount as liquidity permits
    ---------

    Since you're come this far into the rabbit hole, when you can, try to get a few hundred $ worth of btc on a local wallet

    It's an eye-opener having a digital asset that is completely decentralized

    And once you make a transaction for a cup of coffee or something, it's another new experience

    Welcome to the journey and hope you stay
     
    #241     May 9, 2022
  2. deaddog

    deaddog

    I'm working on that John. I doubt I'll make a transaction as I'm technically illiterate and live in a small rural community that as far as I know doesn't have anywhere I could spend my bitcoin.

    Looking into the pros and cons of hard wallets.

    Still waiting for the down trend to end.

    Not sure I agree with your management plan as I don't like sitting by and watching my wealth disappear when there is something I can do about it. But what ever you feel comfortable with is what you should do.
     
    #242     May 9, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    Short term and swing trading on Bitcoin is an option for you, then. It trades 24/7/365

    Good luck!!
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2022
    #243     May 9, 2022
  4. Handle123

    Handle123

    Had good day, system went on to hedge open profits as bounce is expected in Bitcoin. Would enjoy rally to sell.
     
    #244     May 9, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  5. NoahA

    NoahA

    This is tricky. My own personal rule for day trading is to buy lows and sell highs. Once a higher low and higher high is established, that is the worst time to buy. Case in point, look at the BTC chart below. The second example shows exactly what you describe. The worst thing is the stop has to be below the Lower low, and for a trade, that is far too much given how wide the channel is. If buying around 46k on that higher high, it was essentially the top.



    2022-05-09 1939.07.png

    Yes, I would sell for property at one point in my life. The reason for buying at any price is that I don't think anyone can time it. Yes, it may very well go down to 25k, but if I don't get any at 30k and it shoots up to 35k, what do I do now? I know you can say just skip the trade, don't chase, but this isn't a trade for me. I really think it will be a long term hold. If its a crypto winter and I have to watch it drop to 10k and sit there, so be it. I will just accumulate more. And if BTC dies a horrible death, then I think our only chance to save the system has failed, and we have much bigger problems in the world.

    One of the key things for me is hashrate. I have watched so many videos on so many passionate people in this space. If the hashrate is consistently strong, it means bitcoin isn't going anywhere. If something better comes along in a few years, then I'm more than willing to re-evaluate. But nothing is like bitcoin, this is what most of the jackasses here don't understand. You simply cannot compare it to any other coin. When you do an honest deep dive on learning about fiat money and gold, and accept the benefits and drawbacks, you learn how well bitcoin fixes all the shortcomings.

    Quick example. Lets say your country comes out with a CBDC. The first question is, who will issue it, meaning how does it come into existence? If the country can just print it, its already lost to bitcoin because with bitcoin, you need to put in real work in order to mine it. If there isn't a strict schedule of supply written into the code, then once again, its already lost out on another important variable with reference to bitcoin. If transactions can be changed by central authorities, well, who wants to deal with that shit? Will you really put wealth behind something the government can control? There is simply no competing coin that can be introduced that would come anywhere close to being as special as bitcoin.

    The world is so lacking trust right now from our own governments and the media. The legal system is a total mess, and nobody even has any faith in the supreme court I bet given how the judges are appointed. Everything in the world is a total farce right now. But with bitcoin, you can have utmost trust in one of the most important aspects of life. The government wants to steal from you through inflation, to devalue your hard work. This has been a problem for so long actually, but there really was no good way to work outside of the system. When you fully understand bitcoin and the network, you see how this is the first true opportunity to get us to the other side.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2022
    #245     May 9, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    *** Post is for entertainment purpose only ***

    Fun trade if there's a flash crash after CPI report tomorrow, planning to put a perp futures 10x on btc if it goes to $25k/btc

    Small, $1k, no stop, will let it get liquidated or cash out when btc goes back to $30k

    NFA
     
    #246     May 10, 2022
    NoahA likes this.
  7. johnarb

    johnarb

    *** Post is for entertainment purposes only ***

    [Bitcoin did not have a flash crash to $25K so there was no short term trade for me]

    Costco, Walmart, Target, Dollar Tree, Consumer retail are giving a signal of a recession or are we already in one?

    And then the state of the consumer credit is not good, see below

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/10/consumer-credit-card-debt-near-an-all-time-high.html

    All kinds of markets are crashing right now and J. Powell just gave the biggest hint yesterday that the beating will continue

    Real Estate prices are still holding strong due to low supply and plus the "corporations" are buying RE, so there's that...

    upload_2022-5-18_14-25-30.png

    Maybe tomorrow will be another bloodbath? who knows, doesn't really matter if we get a bounce, it will be short-lived since JPow wants to inflict as much pain to slow down or bring down inflation per his orders

    -----------

    Personally, I've liquidated ~$50K worth of altcoins and NFT's and just leaving as cash and will not be deployed into buying stock options (i.e. LEAPS calls) as was previously planned

    Long term crypto portfolio value has come down a lot, but that's long term and I'm not making changes

    Stay safe out there
     
    #247     May 18, 2022
    NoahA likes this.
  8. savoir

    savoir

    So just holding long Bitcoin? (And Bored Ape?)

    Hey, look on the bright side, at least you’re not averaging down and taking a whole country down with you like Bukele.
     
    #248     May 18, 2022
  9. savoir

    savoir

    Sure, no offense taken. I’ve been called worse.

    Your post started with the disclaimer “for entertainment purposes only”and it was. Thought I’d chime in with some humor of my own.

    It’s good to keep a sense of humor through the turmoil. There’s a thread about the market being down 4% today which has some funny posts.

    Why can’t people figure out all their wounds are self-inflicted? It’s going to get really fun on this site when the shit really hits the fan. Not anytime soon though.
     
    #249     May 18, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    Thanks for being a good sport, savoir

    My positions are long term and I take full responsibility for whatever the outcome of how low the value of the portfolio might go to during this bear market

    I rode -85% in 2014-2016 and -90% in 2017-2020 bear markets, but the difference this time is that I de-risked last year (documented here on ET)

    -----

    I did not appreciate being setup to a conclusion that El Salvador is being driven to insolvency when the data does not support it

    • El Salvador has $3B in value of reserves. They own more gold than Bitcoin
    • Remittance is a big part of El Salvador economy $6B/yr (according to Reuters)
    • The remittance fees charged by Western Union, MoneyGram I saw mentioned on Twitter was over $400M/yr
    • Since legalizing Bitcoin the fees are $0 when sender is also using Chivo wallet, or if using any other Bitcoin Lightning Wallet the fees are a few pennies that a sender is able to send even $1 to someone in El Salvador that was not possible before
    • All El Salvador consulate offices in the US has a Chivo ATM which can also be used to send $ to someone in El Salvador
    upload_2022-5-18_20-8-18.png
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2022
    #250     May 18, 2022
    NoahA likes this.