Bitcoin is (with the big B, although lately I've been using Bitcoin when bitcoin would suffice) is a complex asset I only responded to Frederick's post re: "solving puzzles, consuming energy". For everything else wrt Bitcoin, I can point to books There are many detailed videos on bitcoin mining and the reasons, incentive mechanisms, going back to the Bitcoin whitepaper, but I did not post those YouTube videos because US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen video explained it very well For anyone not interested in learning and as you say prevent widespread adoption, I will have to disagree. Bitcoin has been doing quite well with the adoption and there will be people left behind Bitcoin will continue to be successful
Bitcoin is in the consciousness of the herd. $1 million for Bitcoin is now the common refrain. I think the hype dial has been turned up to its maximum. The one pathway I see for the price of Bitcoin to reach new heights is hyperinflation. I just don’t see that happening, however. Volcker is revered for a reason, and he caused not one but two recessions. We will see once again that the Fed has absolute power to stop inflation. The hype that Bitcoin will become legal tender outside of economic backwaters like El Salvador is wishful thinking at best or purposefully misleading at worst. The fact you can send it peer to peer and the person on the other end can redeem it for local currency is not the stuff of revolution. It seems to me that Bitcoin is purely an instrument for speculation. It’s still the same Kool Aid being served. Just the latest flavor is a real hit.
Bitcoin will be worth over $1M each before the end of the decade, imho However, when the price of bitcoin hits $1M, it will not stop at that price. The value of the US $ does not stop going down Go back 20-30 years ago and can you imagine a company ever hitting $1 Trillion market cap? Now we got Apple worth $3 Trillion and several other companies worth over $1 Trillion market cap Bitcoin will keep going up in value forever. Forever, Laura, er, Deidra
You are a true believer. That’s your choice. I have zero desire to dissuade you. I am just passing some time on a message board. Twenty to thirty years ago I didn’t think about the market cap of a company. P/E was all the rage. What does a market cap of a trillion or two or three mean to me now? Only that people consider such a metric significant. I don’t get married to stocks. I only trade them. I don’t get attached to anything that I’m looking to make money on. I hold real estate long term. The appreciation the last few years has been ridiculous. Do I think it will go up forever? I don’t ever ask such a question because I won’t live forever. Everything speculative goes through cycles. People who have seen only rising prices may not know that and think holding forever is a sure thing. They will eventually find out what the game is.
Bitcoiners have figured out what the game is. You're almost there, but you haven't figured out the last piece The game is money. Throughout history since ancient times, money has been the most important game If you want to be enlightened, you can read "The Bitcoin Standard" and or "Layered Money" to get a fundamental understanding of the game of money. If not, it's your loss, not mine --------------- Just to be clear, Bitcoiners have endured a lot of bear markets and a lot of price crashes so a constant rising price is not part of our experience Price crash from January 2014 to mid 2016, $1,200+ per bitcoin all the way to $150 Price crash from January 2018 to late 2019, $20,000 per bitcoin all the way to $3,200 Price crash March 2020 $7,000 to $3,300 in a matter of days Price crash last year 2021 $64,000 to $28,000 in a matter of weeks You'd shit in your pants if you had to endure your portfolio going through those price crashes, and yet, Bitcoiners like me are true believers
Do you honestly expect interest rates to go anywhere near even 5%? With the amount of debt in the system, we will not even reach double digits and I suspect 5% is even not in the cards given that mortgage rates would be at 7 or 8%. The FED is I believe scared shitless right now because they know there is no way out of this mess. I bet most members just want to leave with whatever money they made and run, and then blame the crash on the next guy. Of course war will be a very convenient scapegoat, and you already have Biden blaming Russia for the price of everything going up. It may very well also be the case that war will naturally put a lid on consumerism, which means inflation will slow down, but so will economic growth, so a recession will absolutely happen, but at least the monetary system will get to live another day. This of course will probably be bad for crypto as most people will be wanting to be in cash, but no way the world can go forward without either an inflationary blowup or a deflationary bust. The FED does perhaps get to pick which one they want, and of course neither is good.
When you say “Bitcoiners have figured out what the game is” and “the game is money” I think you mean you see Bitcoin overthrowing the current fiat money system. That seems to be the story being sold and it strikes me as a very naive notion. But I will add your recommended books to my reading list. To me, the game is speculation. There are numerous ways to do it and lots of things to speculate on. Bitcoin is just one of them. Regardless, I do see an incongruity in your thinking about bear markets and “crashes” and holding Bitcoin the next 10 years for a million. In the end, whatever you speculate on, the result is making or losing a few bucks. If the thought of losing money makes you lose control of your bowels, you should learn to trade. Believe in yourself, not in the thing you’re trading. Then shitting in your pants would no longer be in the picture.
Over the long term, Bitcoin is an excellent Store of Value There's already a post re: utility of Bitcoin, if you're interested, I'll copy and paste it --------------------- Just to add, gold has been a store of value for thousands of years and has been used as a medium of exchange in the past However, gold now is not used as: collateral for a house mortgage medium of exchange to purchase goods or services transfer of value across long distances, even across borders, instantly Generate yield Collateral for a loan without needing to leave your home What is the utility of gold for an average person other than it's shiny and can be worn?