Crypto Crash Survivors Could Become Tomorrow’s Amazons, Bank of England Says

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jun 23, 2022.

  1. deaddog

    deaddog

    What is it you expect from a store of value?

    It is one of the problems I have with bitcoin. I can't figure out how to value it. So I don't know if bitcoin is a bargain today or if it's going much lower.

    As near as I can figure you have to hope that someone will take it off your hands in the future.

    Right now my store of value will be cash. If something comes along that seem to be increasing in value faster than cash then I'll speculate. Not saying it won't be bitcoin but whatever it is the risk will be controlled. When the price of stuff starts to decline there is no downside to cash.
     
    #71     Jun 25, 2022
  2. No one can figure out how to do that with FAANG stocks either. Especially the CEO of Nutflix.
     
    #72     Jun 25, 2022
  3. NoahA

    NoahA

    The value of anything is what someone else will pay for it. I've had a bunch of silver collecting dust since 2013. My god, if only I bought bitcoin then. Now I see how the spread of physical silver is so high, and hoping for it to even double is a pipe dream. Bitcoin can easily double and it would even be at ATH. So I'm gonna wait for a bump in precious metals and then sell it all.

    Cash is fine, and the loss is predictable. Plus, you of course need cash so that way when there is blood in the streets, you can scoop stuff up cheap. If you are waiting for an uptrend in bitcoin, that is fine too.

    But lets face it, if you got into bitcoin even as late as March 2020, and captured a 10x return, you would have done much, much better than anything else. Even now at 20k, you'd be sitting on a 5x from a roughly 4k low.

    It is possible that we never see ATHs again for bitcoin, I don't deny it. But I think this is very low probability, and it would require central banks to stop printing and governments to get spending under control, plus give the impression that they will let the market be free. Of course none of this is happening, so I do believe that its only a matter of time until the macro picture for bitcoin improves.
     
    #73     Jun 25, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  4. deaddog

    deaddog

    People are still holding FAANG stocks???
     
    #74     Jun 25, 2022
  5. It's too late for that. Social security in the US (and Italy) for example is long past sustainability.
     
    #75     Jun 25, 2022
  6. deaddog

    deaddog

    But I didn't. Woulda Coulda Shoulda !!!
    And I was pretty well sitting in cash at the time. And I was late getting back in the market. Opportunity lost. On the bright side I didn't lose any money. My drawdown in 2020 was less than 5%. At the end of the year I was up. I'm sitting in cash again since this spring and I'll probably be late getting back into the game again.

    Actually the first time I even considered bitcoin is when Johnarb and I got into a debate about trading vs buy and hold. Took a stab at it at 48k and got stopped out.

    So back to the question what I don't like about bitcoin.

    Although it can function as a currency at this time fiat is more widely accepted.

    As a store of value it is too volatile for my liking. I think most regard it as a risk asset.
    My prefered place to store value and protect my capital is cash.(At least short term)

    Bitcoin doesn't actually exist: it's a virtual digital currency.
    Virtual:...."not physically existing as such but made by software to appear to do so"
    When you get right down to it bitcoin is a reward for solving a problem on a computer. It's value is in the mind of the holder. If you can find someone to exchange the reward for cash you win but you have to find, I hate to say it, a greater fool who is willing to pay for it for it to increase in value.

    Google financial bubble and see if bitcoin fits.
     
    #76     Jun 25, 2022
  7. How did you manage to not lose money to inflation? :D
     
    #77     Jun 25, 2022
  8. deaddog

    deaddog

    I was up more than inflation for the year. It's your account value at the end of the year that counts.
     
    #78     Jun 25, 2022
  9. NoahA

    NoahA

    As traders, we both know what is means for there to be no bids sometimes. It happens in the regular financial world as well. If the FED wasn't buying so much toxic crap like junk bonds, it would never sell and the rates would spike like crazy, hoping to find a buyer, even on US treasuries. So the greater fool theory is alive and well in every financial sector. But.....

    You're honestly hopeless and I will never waste time talking about bitcoin with you again. You appear to want to learn, but then come right back to your firm opinion that is based on a lack of understanding. So I see now that you don't actually want to learn. You have your mind made up and that's final. Luckily you're older I think, so you probably will get by without having to learn about crypto and blockchains, but the younger generation will for sure need to get up to speed if they aren't learning already since they will be forced to use it.
     
    #79     Jun 26, 2022
    johnarb and deaddog like this.
  10. Value of crypto going up again this morning, but the traders are skewed to the short side.

    Screen Shot 2022-06-26 at 11.00.46 AM.png
     
    #80     Jun 26, 2022