It's just amazing how people use charts to see what they want to see. TA has a place in trading, but it must be combined with short and long term trends. A brief cold snap could momentarily draw a novice to decide that the selloff is over. It seems to me, someone who uses charts only to determine trends, not to pick reversals, support & resistance, that any rally in crude has made it a good entry point for a short position. This has been true for several months. When it stops working, I will lose $. Hopefully, a disciplined, managed amount.
Well, that chart has 9 signals, and all worked. Sure, there can be a few failed signals, but you should know the stats on your own signals and the failure rate, thus you can calculate the overall relaibility....
It's all about timing... I too believe the next move will be towards 60$+ you should act depending on how long you plan to take your long position, I hold short term positions (several hours to a few days max) so I played long from 52 to 55.70 and looking to buy again to the 57 area. I don't think we'll see 40's, not anytime soon at least, I'm more bullish on crude oil now.
After reaching my 57$ target I'm staying out... It's a crucial resistance for me and I rather wait for another clear signal to enter a position either way.
True. The buy signal was at $55, oil is currently at $57... My bet is we are going to see $60 in 2 weeks....
Not before a few days of consolidation to 54/5, don't see crude above 59 in the next few days. 60 and higher will take a while
I wasn't contradicting you, I trade within short periods of time and try to take moves on both long and short sides so a resistance around 59$ gives me an opportunity to take the correction downwards. If you hold positions for longer periods of time and don't mind the pullbacks on the way then it's a different ball game....
I'm with you on that, TraderRay. I'm a long-term bull on oil, but a correction is in order. Awefully steep rise with no new news to support the bulls. Weather can not get worse, but speculators will start wondering more about its actual length and impact, which has probably been overblown. Supplies continue to increase. I don't believe they will forevever, but that is definitely the current trend. Finally OPEC: They've already made their cuts and the market has adjusted for it. Now the only question is whether they will stick with their cuts. All uncertainties would seem to have only a downside for oil, at least for the short term.