Historically, oil has gotten below costs, several times. Why not this time? Until recession fears fade -we are not there yet-, oil will go up. Until massive money printing again, oil down. In the meantime...
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OK here is the latest snapshot of the oil market (Friday, January 30, 2009). Here is how CL ran, open to close (Fri): down 143, up 95, down 59, up 77, down 59, up 49, down 67, up 106, down 130, up 84 & down 52. Prices have consolidated in this market most recently. But heres a tip. If you allow yourself a generous margin of points on the turns (bottoms and tops) you will usually have plenty of time to enter your trade. Including retracements (not shown in the above swings), the average time on turns has been 3 to 4 minutes. That might be between 2 to 7+ minutes with still a few fast turns (1 minute or less). Of course you still need to have a reliable methodology in place as well. Remember, accumulating profits is more important than hitting the actual best price of tops and bottoms. ".. ah bubbling crude.. oil that is .. black gold .. Texas tea"