barring a real demand spike this winter, my hunch is that crude's done. the gangsters have gotten out the business in russia (I should say, the current gangsters), and cashed out so huge that they'll never be short of whores and coke again. they cornered supply for the past 5 or so years and if they had any sense now they'd sell everything they could here. however, "sense" isn't what they have: muscle is. but that only gets you so far so long. the new management is bound to screw things up and may in that event start allowing increased assistance from those who really know the industry to develop production. in spite of itself, it may become more fairly priced. and I'll add this: the entire civilized world -- all of it -- depends on crude oil. if there was ever a strategic asset worth fighting a war over, crude is it. keep your eyes on the den of thieves known as russia.