Crude ready to rally again?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by gharghur2, Sep 9, 2005.

  1. Just noticed this morning, that the recent decline in crude held the 50dma yesterday on 6 month charts, but not the dailys, probably resistance now. Someone mentioned a bullish candlestick at the bottom. And, it's been creeping up over night.

    See attachment below:
  2. attachment I hope :)
  3. We should have some short-covering ahead of the weekend. Esp considering the ever present threat of a storm system developing over the weekend.

    Besides, historically crude peaks near the end of Sep so seasonal tendencies make the short side quite risky this time of year.
  4. tomcole


    Anyone having problem with getting updates on qg/qm etc??? Last price here was at 930est, now 1013est
  5. 9-11 anniversary on Sunday, and we all know how psycho-terrorists love an anniversary. One more reason to expect short covering ahead of the weekend.
  6. Makes perfect sense
  7. A bit too perfect perhaps! :eek:
  8. Well Crude made it up to $65.50 first thing, and there was short covering late.

    So it reached short term resistance and turned over.

    $60 - $61 next?
  9. Having documented why IMO oil is a spec bubble, I agree with BHS that seasonality suggests a strong Sept.

    Still, I think the Katrina situation was the catalyst to form a "blow off" tops in energy markets (oil, NG, HO etc), which IMO should hold for the intermendiate term.

    Remember that the $60+/bar oil costs ON AVERAGE $6/barrel for non-OPEC producers and $1.5/bar for OPEC producers.

    Although I doubt that OPEC will revert to its $25/bar target, now it has realised that the sky won't fall if oil costs 3x higher. Maybe a $35/bar will be the intermediate-term target, unless/until new developments cause a oil GLUT (quite possible imo).
  10. Hi!

    I'm not an Oil specialists by no means.
    Just reading the charts.

    The entire advance from $20 has risen in increments in my view (I'm so glad I keeo a diary, even if it's messy):

    $24 - $48 then down $9 - $10

    $41 - $59 then down $9 - $10

    $51 - $70 now down so far $7

    $61 - $79 then it's over!

    This looks to be a typical ABC -X - ABC advance for a commodity.

    I certainly do not want $79 oil, and either does anyone else, except maybe Exxon Mobile. Then, they can make $10 billion profit in one quarter instead of $7+ billion. Profit, amazing! They make more money in one quarter than the total market cap of most companies listed.

    Seasonality fits too! we're only $3 from a $9 correction.

    Just using this data as a guidline.

    #10     Sep 9, 2005