Maybe May20 hits -$80 tomorrow. Traders with access to storage taking physical delivery are making generational wealth. Scary to think that WTi Jun20 at $20 has $100 of downside in the next few weeks.
There will be no May trading tomorrow. We'll have $20 Oil because June will be the front month. Longs were squeezed today on an expiring physical contract.
We will have this same roll-over (Jun20=>Jul20) issue 4 weeks from now, especially when Cushing hits tanktop.
Ouch!!! Some blood in the streets. Hopefully nobody that we know, or one of us: Several Interactive Brokers LLC (“IBLLC”) customers held long positions in these CME and ICE Europe contracts, and as a result they incurred losses in excess of the equity in their accounts. IBLLC has fulfilled the firm’s required variation margin settlements with the respective clearinghouses on behalf of its customers. As a result, the Company has recognized an aggregate provisionary loss of approximately $88 million. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200421005853/en/
This price action reinforces the fact that wise Risk Management is at the core of profitable futures trading over time. The double-edged sword of leverage at it again. With oil all over the map, so are trading policies, which can increase the challenges when they are introduced with no warning, including in the middle of a trading session. I know at least one broker today suddenly disallowed trading in both CL and QM except for closing out positions, and any extant positions were subject to liquidation! Previous to that they had required CME margin for day trading. I have also heard of at least one requiring 150% of CME margin to be able to day trade oil. It would be interesting to hear what futures traders on here are hearing from their brokers/FCMs. Including IB, with that major 88 million loss.
Well stated. warning, PSA: I just wanted to mention that when the market is moving you are going to have to reach into the order book and hit a bid or lift an offer to get filled. Back in my scalping days, when the market was really moving I used to point well into the DOM a few tics just to make sure I got filled. When you’re taking a loss in a volatile market PLEASE don’t work an offer or a bid - go to market. I’ve seen punters chase markets through insane trading ranges chasing a fill with the intent of selling an offer or buying a bid
May you live in interesting times. Effective April 22, CME will switch its options pricing and valuation model for oil to Bachelier "to accommodate negative prices in the underlying futures and allow for listing of options contracts with negative strikes." !! https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/clearing/2020/04/Chadv20-171.pdf