Don't you think the storage problem was priced in at the latest after Trump said the US wouldn't cut/let market go? Should have been priced in back then, what has changed? I only see the Chinese taking less than expected Oil
I think market was overly optimistic and was pricing in a possible 20M bpd cut with the US sharing a good portion of the burden. They only got a 9.7M bpd with zero contribution from the US. All US production cuts have been involuntary shut-ins caused by market forces. So the less than 10M bpd cut with no firm commitment from the US was very disappointing, to say the least. Market is quickly realizing that the desperate US shale companies won't stop producing until there's nowhere to store it, which could happen sometime in May.
Read today, I forget where, that the Saudi's shipped big quantities to the U.S. in March and even bigger so far this month and bigger yet coming in May. The biggest refinery in the gulf (the U.S. gulf that is) is own by Aramco. So ....
This isn't it but it's along the lines of what I saw earlier: https://gruntstuff.com/saudi-arabias-oil-exports-to-the-us-skyrocketed-in-the-last-month/33265/
TankerTrackers.com do you use it? Is it worth it? I would consider subscribing if I could reduce the egde Hedge Funds have over me
I actually used to be in the biz - Bowling Green downtown NYC. Long time ago. But on the dry cargo side. But there are ways to track for free. Just a lot of little detail work that I can't be bothered with. Especially being a daytrader and all.
The next front month contract, WTI June (CLM20), has huge downside risk (20%+) if depressed demand conditions don't change. I read somewhere it could easy drop from current $25 to $20, since it will be the next month to have exaggerated contango as storage tanks fill up.
CRUD is following BCOMCL. BCOMCL has rolled over from May20 to Jul20 and in August will roll over to Sep20. And in October will roll over to Nov20. In my point of view this: 1- Reduces the impact of Contango 2- Reduces the impact if SPOT price goes negative in May or June (until third Friday of June) 3- If WTI only reaches 40USD by year end CRUD will get marginal profits Am I correct in my assumptions? What happens to JUN20 if spot goes negative? Is it worth 0USD? At the moment JUL20 is at 24,24. If before roll over spot is at 30, does it mean that BCOMCL and CRUD will also see a 23,8% increase?