Let's get ready to rumbllleee! In the bull corner we have Bone and mickey, who see order in the chaos and feel up is now. In the bear corner, we have Stockolio, who feels everything will crash and rebound later. Our referee for this bout will be Mr. Excitement himself, the one who likes to fire everybody...DONALD TRUUMMMPPP!!! Ticket price pays for the whole seat, but you'll only need the edge!
Hahaha I certify it, WTI will be below 45 by June... Are you kidding me ? There isn't one big economy that isn't about to get obliterated. You know the saying Overnight... Fundamentals don't matter, until they do. Some people think the stock market is the economy or something, machines exit very very fast and some will be reminded of that. October 1st WTI was at 75, Dec 24 was at 42.53... You mean to tell me demand for Oil dropped that hard in 3 months ? C ++ Codes decide the price of Oil, not demand this is a fact Sell off starts, Oil going down with it... Once QE5 activated towards end of year, Oil will start rising, I doubt it's ever going back up past 80 tho
Those are bloody bold statements. As for my understanding that fundamentals don't matter until they do? Well, they matter before they do when it comes to energies I think.
3 months prediction on oil and 9 months prediction the Fed will instigate another QE, you must be a wizard? Just in front of my nose I see oil and SP500 indicating a bounce right up ahead. Sometimes my calls are outta whack by a few days but that's possibly due to players pushing market to an extreme to catch out weaker hands, that's often seen by mini and more major blow off tops and bottoms which are like surprises. But atm I see a bounce coming Monday, SPX on Friday penetrated below MA200 that was a bear trap imo but whether its sustainable, dunno. As for further down the track, 3 months, 9 months, it's just guess work or wishful thinking when people make those calls, trade what you see, not what you believe.
Norway deals a blow to an oil Industry that's quickly losing friends The decision of the world's largest sovereign wealth fund to reduce holdings in oil stocks wasn't as far-reaching as the industry feared, but dealt a symbolic blow to fossil fuels that will reverberate for energy companies and their investors. While the divestment by Norway's $US1 trillion ($1.4 trillion) fund doesn't include Big Oil, instead rooting out $US7.5 billion of companies that focus purely on exploration and extraction, the impact of the announcement rippled through the sector. Shares of all oil companies initially plunged on the news, suggesting the move sets the industry up for greater disruption. It's a bitter taste of the new reality for oil producers, which increasingly have to fight for investor dollars rather than enjoying the perks of being indispensable to the global economy. "The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is seen as something of a poster-child amongst sovereign wealth funds," said Alejandro DeMichelis, director of oil and gas research at Hannam & Partners. "This decision could also trigger other large investors to review their stance toward investing in the oil and gas sector." Life is changing for oil companies. Ten years ago, they accounted for about 15 per cent of the S&P 500 index. Today, they make up just 5 per cent, having been mostly displaced by technology giants such as Facebook and Apple. Driving this shift is a smorgasbord of new energy sources that's bringing unprecedented competition for capital. Consumer choices are set to drift farther from the hydrocarbons of the 20th century, with renewables potentially meeting about a quarter of demand by 2040, according to oil major BP. It's no surprise, then, that investors are increasingly questioning the wisdom of betting on oil and gas. A divestment campaign started by activist group 350.org in 2012 has already persuaded funds holding $US8 trillion to back away from fossil fuels, according to its website. Scrutiny could intensify as AGM season approaches. Catherine Howarth, chief executive of ShareAction - a group that has targeted Royal Dutch Shell in the past - said she expected a "ramp-up" of pressure at annual general meetings that start in the spring. "Institutional investors are withdrawing their capital from oil and gas companies on the grounds that quicker-than-expected growth in clean energy and associated regulation is making oil and gas business models highly vulnerable," Howarth said in an email. It's not only oil companies facing pressure. One of the world's biggest sellers of coal, Glencore, yielded to investor demands earlier this year by promising to limit production of the fuel and align the business with Paris climate targets. In oil and gas, Shell and BP have made pledges around transparency and climate after facing the wrath of shareholders. The list of companies to be excluded from the Norwegian fund includes Anadarko Petroleum Corp, Cnooc and Tullow Oil. Shale producers like EOG Resources, which extract fuel from the heartland of America's oil and gas boom, are also included. In the longer term, a dearth of capital will push up the cost of borrowing to explore for oil and gas, with those costs likely passed on to consumers, according to Georgi Slavov, head of research at energy broker Marex Spectron. That makes renewables comparatively cheaper, further pushing fossil fuels out of the market. While Shell, BP and other oil majors were spared in Norway's decision on Friday, they may yet be earmarked for divestment in the future. "The country may eventually revisit the issue and target such holdings," said Rob Barnett, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. In particular, the fund could consider shedding "integrated companies not allocating a portion of their capital spending toward clean energy." For those oil companies moving to diversify, there's light at the end of the tunnel. In its statement, Norway said some of the biggest investments in renewables now come from Big Oil. The fund "should be able to participate in this growth", the Finance Ministry said. "While the fund was initially built on revenue from oil and gas, the Ministry of Finance understands that the future belongs to those who transition away from fossil fuels," said Mark Campanale, founding director of energy researcher Carbon Tracker. "Now is the time for smart investors around the world to follow their lead and make decisions driven by the reality of the energy transition." Bloomberg https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...s-quickly-losing-friends-20190309-p512y8.html
U.S. Oil The U.S. may overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil exporter by 2024, according to the International Energy Agency, which sees global demand growing by 1.2 million barrels a day until then, with the U.S. providing 70% of new supplies. "This will shake up international oil and gas trade flows, with profound implications for the geopolitics of energy," said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. CNBC
It was never my intention to make a “Bullish” prediction for crude - my sense is that it will remain rangebound in the $45 - $60 band until the inevitable recession comes about. We’re not likely to sustain $100 oil given the new reality of awesome North American production and reserves.