Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by bone, Nov 7, 2018.
After we break 45.60 next stop is 42.50 then 40.00. I'd maybe be a buyer at 40.
Drilling Offshore GUYANA Uninterrupted By Irina Slav - Dec 27, 2018, 12:00 PM CST
GUYANA is a top priority ? The tiny nation could become the second-largest oil producer in South America, behind only Brazil and SURPASSING VENEZUELA ?
Commercial production from Stabroek GUYANA is slated to begin in 2020 at the first production well, Lisa-1, which is expected to pump 120,000 bpd of crude and natural gas ?
Discovery of abundant oil and gas reserves estimates Stabroek’s GUYANA reserves at more than 5 billion barrels of crude oil and natural gas ?
This makes ten sizeable discoveries in the three years since a Super Major won the rights to develop Stabroek GUYANA, together with another partner ?
There are another 17 prospects yet to be drilled, which could boost the reserve estimate for Stabroek even further ?
So is this finally the bottom for crude? Everyone is saying to sell the rallies and that $50 (WTI) is the ceiling going forward. Do we see $40 before we see $50? The general consensus is that $40 is the absolute lowest WTI could go, and the whole world will be buying there. Not sure if the everyone will be selling at $50.
Looks like Crude Oil has found it's footing in concert with a firmer equity market.
A play is being done in Oil and HY Bonds... 2019 will be very ugly for some market makers
I'm using this rally to increase my short position. The trend is still down....
We need a revived bearish sentiment on the economy and stock market in order to revisit the lows. The only way this happens is if the Chinese downturn accelerates and brings the rest of the world down with it.
US Shale Oil Bankruptcies will start falling like dominoes very shortly due to rise in borrowing, they make up most of junk bonds... It is pretty much complete disaster at this point, the industry needs 60-70 a barrel to be OK, 50 or less it is a slaughterhouse due to servicing debt. A lot will fall, the ones who were ran well will survive the recession and come back stronger due to much lower head count going forward, all that mumbo jumbo smoke screen by the Fed, Dimon and others coming out saying everything is fine, is to keep the rolling of the sheet going as far as they can, they want a soft landing now , instead of powell's autopilot hard landing. Credit Junk Bond market will start to freeze for good as of next month, once defaults starts, they already did in December, once quarterly financial's from companies start coming in, there is too much debt and credit is tightening. Modern Economy is very simple, credit expands times are beautiful, credit get stopped cause risk of systemic financial shock has gotten too high, so they raise rates fast and pull the plug to let the pressure out, rinse repeat... But fed will start providing Basic Universal Income along with QE5 for the next recession, I would say UBI will be in affect by 2021-2022
Pension Funds will be extremely weird to see, Corporate Energy Credit Market players are way behind the curve compared to Equities Energy Players, or are stuck in moderate losses that they cannot cover close to anything promised. The mainstream media and Fed is trying to cozy up the inevitable, it seems some Major Banks got caught with there hand in the cookie Jar, they ow a bunch of shit Junk Bonds that will be worth maybe 25 cents on the dollar by mid year, like BaC, they have been bleeding billions in bond losses and it could get ugly, there are desperately trying to unload asap
I'm hardly the first person to suggest that the 3 decade period of crazy Chinese acceleration is coming to a gradual close. They have established themselves as the world's low cost manufacturer but in terms of true legitimate IP development of genuine Chinese origin they are far behind. The Communist apparatchik is hiding some ghastly realities in the real estate sector and yes they are prolific currency manipulators on a grand scale. Modern Western economies have rightly become very wary of the perils wrought with Chinese theft of intellectual property and the security compromises associated with Chinese telecommunications gear and integrated circuits.
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