https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/02/world/middleeast/us-iran-mike-pompeo.html The US want to settle things down with Iran... Looks like waivers will be re-introduced if Iran sells it's Oil in US Dollars again, big trouble in little china if Iran agrees. Oil prices will crater if deal is struck and waivers re-activated... Looks like Russia is giving up Venezuela, US will slowly but surely take it, crush Cuba communist as well in the process by choking Oil from them... Two communist leaders eradicated with one coup, not bad. If military US action takes place, expect Oil downtrend, US will now control biggest Oil deposit in the world through a puppet regime Guaido https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...isers-Venezuela-just-scores-left-country.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-a-b...-key-defense-support-to-venezuela-11559486826
API Inventory Report kept CL from making any serious gains with the strong equity markets move up today. We are awash in Crude Oil. Iran is not a serious consideration. OPEC is essentially neutered...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...el-question-where-is-all-that-missing-u-s-oil Oil traders and analysts closely watching weekly U.S. inventory figures have been scratching their heads in the last few weeks wondering one thing: Where are the missing barrels? U.S. Energy Information Administration data Wednesday showed a crude supply adjustment factor -- the difference between reported stockpiles and those implied by production, refinery demand, imports and exports -- of more than 800,000 barrels a day. While that doesn’t seem like that much, it’s added up to more than 24 million barrels over the past four weeks, and potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in trading opportunities. The figure tends to swing back and forth, depending on irregularities in various surveys the EIA pulls from for its reports. It’s the only time since records going back nearly two decades that reported stockpiles have been so much higher than the implied figure for so long, which has surprised traders and investors.
CL simply cannot muster the same enthusiasm as the broad equity markets. Their historically high positive correlation the past few years or so might be coming to an end - undone by plentiful API/EIA inventories and the sense that Fed rate cuts will be needed to dampen or moderate a Recession in the US Economy.
Oil tankers attacked in Gulf of Oman, U.S. Navy says A picture broadcast on Iranian state television shows smoke billowing from a tanker said to have been attacked off the coast of Oman on Thursday. (AFP/Getty Images) By Erin Cunningham and Simon Denyer June 13 at 8:03 AM ISTANBUL — Two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman came under suspected attack early Thursday amid soaring tensions between the United States and Iran. A Japanese-owned ship was targeted just as Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, wrapped up a high-stakes visit to Tehran to help cool hostilities in the region and potentially mediate U.S.-Iran talks. The attack appeared timed to undermine those efforts, which Abe had called “a major step forward toward securing peace and stability in this region,” Japan’s Kyodo news agency reported. Both Iran and the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet in Bahrain said they were assisting the two ships, whose crews were evacuated safely. A second vessel, owned by Norway’s Frontline, was on fire and adrift in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, a company spokesman told Norwegian media. The Japanese-owned ship, which was carrying methanol, suffered damage to its hull, a company statement said. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Thursday on Twitter that the attack took place while Abe was meeting with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for “extensive and friendly talks.” [Trump administration considers responses to potential Iranian attacks, including troop increase] “Suspicious doesn't begin to describe what likely transpired this morning,” he said. The exact circumstances of the attack were unclear. But the incident follows a similar operation targeting oil tankers in the same area last month, an assault that U.S. officials blamed on Iran. Iranian officials deny involvement. The Gulf of Oman links the Arabian Sea with the Strait of Hormuz, the gateway to the Persian Gulf. The gulf has been a flash point for tensions between Iran and the United States, which in recent months has stepped up its “maximum pressure campaign” to isolate Tehran on the world stage. Last month, the U.S. military sent additional assets to the Persian Gulf region to counter what it said were Iranian threats to U.S. interests. The Japanese president of the Kokuka Sangyo shipping company, which owns the Kokuka Courageous ship that was attacked Thursday morning, said the vessel was hit twice over a three-hour period. “The first attack caused a fire in the engine room, which [the crew] managed to extinguish,” Yutaka Katada, president of Kokuka Sangyo, told reporters in Tokyo. “Three hours later, they were attacked again,” he said. “They felt it was unsafe to stay on board. The captain gave the order to evacuate, [and] they fled on life boats.” Japan’s economy minister, Hiroshige Seko, said he was “urging related business operators to take precautions, reconfirming the communication system, and reconfirming the energy supply system.” [The oil route that could become central to mounting tensions between Iran and the U.S.] About 80 percent of Japan’s oil imports come from the Middle East and travel through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan is a key U.S. ally but enjoys long-standing diplomatic and cultural ties with Iran. Abe’s aides said the prime minister’s visit was not part of a specific mission to mediate between the United States and Iran. Khamenei’s office, however, released a statement following their meeting that said Abe had carried a message from Trump to Iran. “I do not consider Trump, as a person, deserving to exchange messages with,” Khamenei’s website quoted him as saying. “We will not negotiate with the United States.” President Trump last year decided to withdraw the United States from a 2015 nuclear pact Iran that signed with world powers. The deal lifted U.S. and other sanctions on Iran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear energy program. The Trump administration has implemented a near-total embargo on Iran’s economy and has urged allies to cut commercial ties with Tehran. According to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran remains in compliance with the 2015 agreement. Denyer reported from Tokyo. Akiko Kashiwagi in Tokyo contributed to this report.
Now the U.S. can increase their military presence in the Middle East, and further enforce the sanction on Iran, which can effectively prevent Iranian oil from being sold to China. This will give U.S. more leverage on the trade talk with China.
Huge power move up across the curve on the backs of a strong broad equity market move. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-...-Fizzling-But-Shale-Oil-Production-Isnt.html# "The frenzied Permania that had oil and gas companies rushing to the O&G hotspot may be on the outs, but production in the industry’s number one basin has not, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s Drilling Productivity Report released on Monday. Oil production in the Permian basin is set to hit a brand-new record next month, the EIA said, expecting a 55,000 barrel per day increase month on month, reaching 4.226 million barrels per day. The Niobrara and Bakken basins are also set for an increase in July, of 10,000 and 11,000 barrels per day, respectively. The Permian accounts for nearly half of the production of the top seven basins, and is nearly three times as prolific as the next most prolific basin, The Bakken. For the seven major basins that the EIA tracks in its monthly Drilling Productivity Report, July’s production is set to increase by 70,000 month over month, reaching 8.520 million bpd—also a new record. This shale oil production has helped to catapult the United States into the top crude oil producer in the world at 12.6 million bpd as of the first week of June, even ahead of the titans of oil industry old—Russia, whose production hit 10.87 million bpd that same week; and Saudi Arabia, whose production hit 9.690 million bpd according to the last official OPEC MOMR. While oil production is still on an uphill climb, the number of DUCs decreased in May, from 8,360 in April to 8,283 in May. Gas production in the seven most prolific shale plays is also expected to increase in July, from 80,564 million cubic feet per day in June to 81,362 million cubic feet per day in July." By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
Can you imagine if the Saudis and Russians (really just the Saudis) hadn't cut production and the Saudi's weren't purposely cutting exports to the US to bring our inventories down? We'd would have easily touched $40 or lower in WTI before this trade war and Iran crisis.