Crude Oil

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by bone, Nov 7, 2018.

  1. RedSun

    RedSun

    Not really.

    When I trade CL now, what and where the signals I use? Both Asian and Europe market are closed. Whatever happened with Brent is the past. I trade on news, yes, NEWS, not old news.

    I look at the most recent econ news, reports, equity index, bond yields, Ag and other energy markets. They are more important than the old news on Brent.

    The long term (6-month or so) correlation is not really useful. The lag is too long. It may be of some use if you trade terms. But that is out of fashion now.
     
    #201     May 21, 2019
  2. bone

    bone

    Where do you get your news ?
     
    #202     May 21, 2019
  3. RedSun

    RedSun

    Pay to get financial news. Bloomberg, CNBC, MSNBC, FT etc...
     
    #203     May 21, 2019
  4. bone

    bone

    Every serious Crude Trader I know in Houston uses Platt’s. You pay $1800 per month for a Bloomberg terminal?
     
    #204     May 21, 2019
  5. RedSun

    RedSun

    I read Platts' Gas Daily and MW daily. But it is not news.... You can go to PIRA etc.

    There are so many news sources. You want me to list them all and bash each other ?? Interesting.
     
    #205     May 21, 2019
  6. What does S&P Platt's run you?
     
    #206     May 21, 2019
  7. RedSun

    RedSun

    Do not know. Do not care.
     
    #207     May 21, 2019
  8. themickey

    themickey

    What signal are you receiving atm on oil?
    Bullish, bearish, strong, weak, going nowhere...?
    In case you were thinking it's because I want a tip - no.
    My signal is weakly bullish or tentative bullish. Upward but not convincingly strong.
    Haven't checked the latest as it's 5am here where I am and still in bed.
     
    #208     May 21, 2019
  9. themickey

    themickey

    Remaining on track as it has done the previous week or so, mildly bullish but still tentative is my call, similar to the general stock market, climbing up a wall of worry. The widespread market pessimism will probably do more good for it than harm.
     
    #209     May 21, 2019
    vanzandt likes this.
  10. WTI supply is plentiful and there's no stopping exploding US shale production. Brent supply is tight and getting tighter, thanks to the Saudis and maybe the Russians. Saudis won't renew status quo production until they get their $85/barrel in Brent. Shale production won't slow down until WTI dips below $50. This has got to really piss off the Russians and Saudis, who are giving up huge market share to the US, at their expense.

    They're projecting over 13 million a day by year end for US crude production, blowing away the Russians and Saudis. Because of this, I don't think we'll ever see meaningful sized (consecutive monthly) draws from Cushing supply, which the Saudis are targeting specifically in vain (cutting exports to US).

    WTI - Brent spread should be closer to $20 than $10.

    My gut feeling is that the Fed never cuts rates, causing the stock market to crash in the fall as it usually does, taking WTI prices down (below $55) with it. But maybe we see $70 this summer before we see sub $55 later this year.
     
    #210     May 21, 2019