Support at $60 might be a bit tenuous in here - $55 seems safer. This move caught more than a few longs flat-footed. $60 might present like a cheap put for big specs hunting stops and looking to collect a fast buck or two.
Wasn't there talk of $100 by December...all that hype of triple digits...and the exact opposite has happened.....pure hype!!!
Yep. And the new Iranian sanctions kicking in this week were supposed to tighten supplies. The North American hydrocarbons production boon has truly been a massive sea change to the world economy and to the power of OPEC.
The fact that CL can't rally with equities tells me that $60 is incredibly likely - we're at 60-74 as I type this. And at that $60 technical support level is where the fun begins.
Well, here we are at 60-15; ten days of losses in a row. Russia and OPEC hinting at production changes haven’t altered the market arc to date. S1 @ $60 S2 @ $55
I believe that we will start to see some more rhetoric around production cuts from OPEC+. We may also see US production decline as the prices come down as companies close their more expensive wells. Short term bearish - Due to market sentiment. Medium term bullish - Based on OPEC+ and US Shale reaction to lower prices. I have opened some buy positions with a small sell hedge to catch any further price drop.
We opened up modestly today. At $60 all US fracking production and Canadian shale sands production currently online is profitable - US is in a little better position until such time as Canada gets their shit together regarding pipeline basis.
57-11 last on the Dec contract. If we can manage and maintain a couple strong Daily closes below $60; better yet if we could manage a close below $60 on this Friday's settlement - $55 will be our new S1, $50 S2 and $45 S3. The $50 level will attract the most order flow.