Crude Oil

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by bone, Nov 7, 2018.

  1. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    Support at $60 might be a bit tenuous in here - $55 seems safer. This move caught more than a few longs flat-footed. $60 might present like a cheap put for big specs hunting stops and looking to collect a fast buck or two.
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2018
  2. S2007S


    Wasn't there talk of $100 by December...all that hype of triple digits...and the exact opposite has happened.....pure hype!!!
    TraDaToR likes this.
  3. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    Yep. And the new Iranian sanctions kicking in this week were supposed to tighten supplies.

    The North American hydrocarbons production boon has truly been a massive sea change to the world economy and to the power of OPEC.
    TraDaToR likes this.
  4. Yeah,if i should stumble, catch my fall, yeah.
  5. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    The fact that CL can't rally with equities tells me that $60 is incredibly likely - we're at 60-74 as I type this. And at that $60 technical support level is where the fun begins.
  6. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    Well, here we are at 60-15; ten days of losses in a row. Russia and OPEC hinting at production changes haven’t altered the market arc to date.

    S1 @ $60

    S2 @ $55
  7. Rickylee


    I believe that we will start to see some more rhetoric around production cuts from OPEC+. We may also see US production decline as the prices come down as companies close their more expensive wells.

    Short term bearish - Due to market sentiment.
    Medium term bullish - Based on OPEC+ and US Shale reaction to lower prices.

    I have opened some buy positions with a small sell hedge to catch any further price drop.
  8. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    We opened up modestly today. At $60 all US fracking production and Canadian shale sands production currently online is profitable - US is in a little better position until such time as Canada gets their shit together regarding pipeline basis.
    TraDaToR likes this.
  9. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    57-11 last on the Dec contract. If we can manage and maintain a couple strong Daily closes below $60; better yet if we could manage a close below $60 on this Friday's settlement - $55 will be our new S1, $50 S2 and $45 S3. The $50 level will attract the most order flow.
  10. themickey


    Dead cat bouncing.
    #10     Nov 14, 2018
    bone likes this.