Crude Oil: where it goes from here?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by stav, Aug 23, 2005.

  1. stav


    I know there are few threads dealing with crude here, but I thought to open this one to address specifically crude direction from a technical analysis stand point.
    On a daily chart, and using elliott waves, I have a wave 5 target at 78ish that should hit in 2-3 weeks from today.
    On a weekly chart, I have a w3 trgt at 72 and a w5 trget at 87ish in about 20 weeks from now,ie Jan, 2006.
    Given the controversy of elliott wave counts, I would suggest to concentrate more on alternative waYs of finding targets than on analysing elliott. Thx.
    The pandora box is open ...!!!
  2. From classical technical analysis perspective:

    The breakout from the $62 level was expected, after a huge ascending triangle. The breakout went up roughly the size of the preceding range (56.5 - 62].

    The recent sharp sell off to 62.2 (BTW, exact match with July's high) was a bearish sign, at least in the intermediate term. After testing again levels under 67 yesterday, there is a good chance to go down at least to 63, which is first support. I expect this to happen in a week or so.

    from there, I expect a period of at least a month of consolidation between 62-67. If there is a break down from 62, the downside risk may be significant, as 67 will mark a double-top. In this case the target for the following decline will be 57.5 (62-4.5).

    As of yesterday, I'm short from 66.5 with stop at 67.2 and profit target at 63.
  3. fundamentally i would be cautious.

    1.summer driving season is over in 2 weeks.

    2. the spr is now full

    3. prices are starting to reduce demand in the usa.
  4. stav


    nice trade, are u trading crude futures or options on futs?

    I do think that one has to consider fundamentals when trading, but dont u think that those fundamentals you are referring to are already priced in?
  6. once this storm passes, it sells.
  7. stav


    aprims, what storm are u referring to? could you share those with us?
  8. you know, the storm.


    <font size = 1>there's a hurricane headed for the gulf that threatens refinery ops there.</font>
  9. I cannot understand the fixation of the market on the weather.
    The coming storm is never going to strengthen to Hurricane and is not coming anywhere close to the gulf where to rigs are!
  10. This oil bubble, driven by WallStreet speculation in the futures markets, is dependant on media misinformation to keep going.

    Oil stocks are at 5yr highs, rising every week.
    Over the next 6-12 months a lot of new production capacity will come online (not really needed short-term, but will add a cushion against future spikes in demand)

    Bottleneck SINCE 2004 is ONLY IN REFINING (an issue at oil consuming countries)

    The physical market (i.e. demand from oil producing nations) at oil producing countries is actually down, as demand is falling. You can verify this from shipping industry.

    The oil-producing nations (OPEC etc) have said this INNUMERABLE times since 2004, but I guess nowadays they just sit back and enjoy windfall profits, thanks to Dubya's BigOil and WallStreet speculators.
    #10     Aug 24, 2005