Crude Oil to $180

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Wallace, Jun 9, 2008.

  1. Demand is still exceeding supply, according to the IEA.

    Will supply demand equation revert to the mean as everyone expects?
     
    #11     Jun 10, 2008
  2. one of the biggest lies in favor of higher prices....


    whether this is true or not

    sour crude debunks that myth....

    tar sands are already debunking that myth...

    other oil derivatives are debunking that myth...

    crushed coal into gasified oil is debunking that myth too....

    when that behemoth hits then this game is over! period!
     
    #12     Jun 10, 2008
  3. ^Too bad the only thing that matters is the current quote, which is up today.
     
    #13     Jun 10, 2008
  4. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2032622>
     
    • oil.jpg
      File size:
      229.9 KB
      Views:
      389
    #14     Aug 18, 2008
  5. Yeah, oil WILL go to $180
    (on year 2025)
     
    #15     Aug 18, 2008
  6. my price analysis presented in this thread was based on the weekly chart, not looking
    at the daily chart i missed seeing the ew ab formation clearly seen there indicating a
    trend reversal, however such patterns don't always materialize

    i also considered that the size of the w 1 meant this wave would be higher than 144
    that the rally from 85 to 144 was w 3 and that a fifth wave then had to form completing
    major w 3; my impatience to see that happen resulted in this thread - and i still don't see
    or interpret the formation differently, even tho there's been a large drop in price, but . . .

    the next fibo number in the series is 89 + 144 = 233 which would be the major w 5 top
    but it's difficult to see it going there without a lengthy correction, into say 2011

    ew's rule of alternation works quite well so it's possible that there's a w 4 underway with
    this downleg being w a and the abc continuing till the early summer next year, however
    there is a case that regardless of the w 1 size, there was a very small w 5 - daily - and
    that major w 3 has topped
     
    #16     Aug 25, 2008
  7. So what is it you're calling on this, Wallace? It either goes up or down from here?
     
    #17     Aug 25, 2008
  8. For all intent and purposes, he is saying that Wave (3) of III has topped and we have thus far experienced Wave "A" down of Wave (4) of III.

    ( Note: This is the current "Alternative Count" from the folks at EWT ).

    After a low is reached ( note his .618 fibonacci retracement target around $110 ) Elliott Wave would then look for some sort of a "B" Wave back up that retraces part of Wave "A" before yet another pullback in the form of Wave "C".

    Interestingly enough, the gang at EWT is counting this as a Wave (2) pullback inside of Big Wave V ( in the form of an "a-b-c" zig-zag ) after Wave (1) peaked up at $147.

    This is their current PRIMARY count and it would imply that there are massively HIGHER PRICES ahead for Crude Oil.
     
    #18     Aug 25, 2008
  9. Ivanovich, yes, Landis82 has explained things - there's a correction going on but i don't
    know if it's a correction of w 3 of w 5 of w III or w IV of w V and we may not know until
    the whole abc correction is complete - hence the ambiguity

    i'd thought of dropping this thread and starting a 'Crude Oil Correction' thread because
    my initial call was off but i'll stick with this thread as we've an idea of what's happening

    i can't see prices going 'massively higher' before rationing comes into effect
    i watched larry king monday night, bill mayer was on and joked about enjoying the
    recession because the roads were quiet and he got very good service when shopping -
    people practicing self-rationing
    there isn't a supply problem and tho oil is a finite resource there's a lot that hasn't been
    discovered yet


    what i think's been done so far is either w 1 and 2 or a and b down to be followed by one
    or three more waves down to complete w a of an abc correction
    using the january 07 low of $50 for the correction fibo, the 50% is around the top of the
    white w 1 of w III which offers a lot of support between $100 and $85 which is just below
    the 61.8% level; timeline to bottom, october ?
     
    #19     Aug 26, 2008
  10. Gotcha - bottom around October, higher prices from there. Alrighty.

    I do not pretend to understand or even put much faith in wave theory, but you two seem to be big believers in it, and as such it gives me pause.

    I do have a slight issue with you mixing wave theory with fundamental supply and demand thoughts -in my opinion you either trade one or the other, but who am I to tell you how to trade?

    Good luck with the call. I'll be interested in seeing how it pans out.
     
    #20     Aug 26, 2008