That's Brilliant! You may very well prove to have an excellent strategy here. One thing is for sure, this thread will be bumped in the near future.
I did see weakening upside via a reduced histogram on daily chart, but weekly is in a very strong runaway trend, it is tricky to trade oil at the moment due to two sided volatility. I don't have any level projections in mind, but would like to see weekly to start showing weakening histogram, only then I would consider it shortable.
I've had something similar in mind. Though I can't believe in a blowup up to 200, that just sounds way too extreme. As it should, of course.
It looks to me like ..the Dollar and oil cannot be separated. If you see the dollar declining then oil will rise..If the Dollar is recovering then oil will decline. I think its just as much about speculation in the dollar as it is in speculation in Oil. Strengthen the greenback and oil should react .
500 billion dollars will be printed and dilute the current supply even more... Oil is just readjusting, to that fact, the fact that immense flooding of the money supply is the only thing that can rescue the system. ultimately resulting in inflation...(a deflation scare) that leads to inflation.
$144 done my last post here, new target: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=128919