Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Wallace, Oct 22, 2007.
done 89, next is 144
Dont low-ball it...
Could be right.
The Peak Oil advocates are concerned that supply will be unable to meet demand starting in a year or two. I doubt it.
There are TONS of oil in Canadian oil sands and Colorado oil shale. If the price stays high enough and the demand strong enough, those resources will become commercially viable and will be developed along with the greater acceptance of automobiles which are partly or all electric.
One problem with the Oil sands is the rising costs. If there costs were the same level as 3 years ago, there would be HUGE money to be made.
Alberta has to find a way to keep costs down to take better advantage of the high crude price.
Another problem (or, perhaps, the flip side of the same coin) is that oil sands production is difficult to scale up, and impossible to scale up quickly. It has taken 30 years to develop 1 million barrels per day of production on the Athabasca oil sands. The second mbpd of production may take only a decade given the enormous influx of capital and headcount into the Athabasca region. Compare with Saudi Arabia, a resource of roughly the same total oil in place, which is being produced at 8 or 9 mbpd, and has claimed the ability to increase production by another 5 mbpd in less than a decade.
Hell yeah, this is my kind of thread!
WALLACE--------After 144, is your next target 233?
then 337 unless I miss my guess!!!
believe Elliott stated that a complete market cycle consisted of
a 144 wave cycle -- 89 wave bull cycle and 55 wave bear cycle
which could mean CL has topped and going to $34
price is completing W5 of 5 waves
price is completing B of W4 of 5 waves
price is completing W5 of W3 of 5 waves
my current fibo W5 targets are $96.50 and $103.50
$144 is circa 2009
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