China is more sensitive than the press leads you to believe... The yuan adjustment is the tip of the iceberg... Too much China optimism... 50 before 100....
I agree with previous post. I even think we could have a big sell off within a year. All it would take is a US slowdown/ recession. Funds and specs would dump en mass, probably at some unpredictable time fundamentally speaking. Currently, we have plenty of supply, it is speculation of shortages holding up the markets. Long term, we're screwed. Unless there is a China collapse or something, I don't see how supply will keep up. It will take several years of high prices to get alt energy into gear so that it can make much difference. If I was looking for the next big trade, I'd be looking short. Jay
On the weekly charts crude broke from an ascending triangle on 9th april 2006 near 69 zone. Now it is taking support again and again near 69. It is just a matter of time that it starts it up journey again. I would prefer to buy at current price with a closing stoploss of 67 for a target of 79.
i think the price short term has everything to do with iran, and less to do with charts or technicals. if iran rolls over and agrees to suspend uranium enrichment - the premium built into oil over this dispute would evaporate. 10-15$ in a blink. they know this too which is why dragging this thing on makes them tens of millions every day. if they defy the un - which id give a higher probability then any other scenario - this is where it could get messy. 4th largest producer. 2nd largest reserves. We start enforcing embargos and iran threatens to turn the tap off. fuck me. could git ugly. throw in, imho, that the world is on a hair trigger right now over the buy button on oil. imagine what a hurricane or a well placed bomb could do to the price in the short term. fopr sure it would be an over reaction - but i could see 100$+ in a heartbeat. thats my 2 cents
Staying long here. Although I did sell short-term 74 calls against the position 1-1 ratio a little while back. Should work nicely, I hope as they expire in 23 days.