Crude Oil Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spectre2007, Aug 28, 2007.

  1. no stops for this system, it stops itself out based on future action.

    some assumptions:

    1) all price movement is random
    2) in a basket of 20 or more commodities, some will go parabolic over a multiyear span.
    3) the excursion will be greater then a specified amout of retrace.
    4) pyramiding into the excursion, geometrically 1,2,4,8,16,32,64..etc..

    there are some commodities that hit n(pyramid level)=8, or more in excursion.

    n
    1 = 1
    2 = 2
    3 = 4
    4 = 8
    5 = 16
    6 = 32
    7 = 64
    8 = 128
     
    #11     Aug 28, 2007
  2. crude expectations. Price can meet the bands or bands can meet the price.
     
    #12     Aug 28, 2007

  3. Copper hit 9N
    OJ hit 6N
    Lumber , Mexican Peso, 1 month LIBOR, Australian Dollar, Euro Fx, and Cotton hit 5N
     
    #13     Aug 28, 2007
  4. One could argue that intraday entrainment is stronger then longer (daily) entrainment.

    2 components of entrainment

    -emotion
    -memory
     
    #14     Aug 28, 2007
  5. The commodities with the greatest N at the current moment are:

    Cotton 5N
    Lumber 5N
    OJ 5N

    Australian Dollar 3N
    British Pound 3N
    Euro 3N
    Natural Gas 3N

    BP and Euro only active N's.
     
    #15     Aug 28, 2007
  6. breaking trendline in AH.
     
    #16     Aug 28, 2007
  7. major short covering, given the macro situation, further selling on increase, expected.

    low as 71.50 in AH, 73.50 today.
     
    #17     Aug 29, 2007
  8. some headers..

    ES = 1484
    USDJPY = 117.00


    usdjpy....at 115.69 currently..expected retrace to 116.00 next 12 hrs.

    if the rate fails to meet this expectation, then it adds further credence, that the last 8 hr action was a countertrend macro move, to revitalize cap reserves.
     
    #18     Aug 29, 2007
  9. What is a "pyramid level"? How is it established? What is an "excursion"? Knowing how you're using these terms enables one to follow along.

    OldTrader
     
    #19     Aug 29, 2007
  10. pyramid level, means a position multiplier. Excursion means, retrace or move, the pyramid level comes into effect when prices move and extend yearly ranges.
     
    #20     Aug 29, 2007