Crude Oil Inventories - February 18th 2021

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by JamesThatcher, Feb 18, 2021.

  1. DOE Crude Forecast is -2426
    DOE Gasoline is +1397
    API Actual Crude is -5800
    API Actual Gasoline is +3900
    Will, therefore, use a forecast of = -4000 for Crude oil
    Will, therefore, use a forecast of = +2500 for Gasoline
    Remember that OIL is a commodity, so more oil is bad for the market price and vice versa. A positive deviation means a SELL on OIL and a negative deviation means a BUY on oil! So we must reverse the triggers!! Check out the great move that API private report created last night here! Nice spike and continuation!
    See charts here...;i=29263;t=2021-02-17;r=M1Last week's DOE report didn't trigger for us but was very close!
    See charts here....;i=28647;t=2021-02-10;r=M1Trade plan...
    For non-slip platforms will use a timeout of 100ms
    For platforms with slippage will use a timeout of 500msT1 = 3900 dev, with max conflict of 1500 on Gasoline
    T2 = 4900 dev, with max conflict of 2500 on Gasoline
    T3 = 6000 dev, with max conflict of 3500 on Gasoline

    Additionally, we can set up another T1 trigger of +-5000 on Gasoline if Oil deviates by at least +-1750

    On platforms that allow slippage control, we can run the same setup but allow GAS conflicts up to 5000 on all triggers.
  2. maxinger


    Nowadays traders don't really bother about the Wednesday oil inventory data release.

    Traders might be interested in weather forecasts (see Texas power supply).
    and We focus on the charts and not those numerous , complex , difficult-to-comprehend inventory numbers.

    only the oil / gasoline factory managers are interested in those
    numerous , complex , difficult-to-comprehend inventory numbers, T1T2T3 API, milli seconds, max / min conflict .... things.
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2021
  3. Overnight


    And it all came crashing down. CL stopped making sense years ago. Huge drawdown, yet prices dropped.
  4. dealmaker


    “The elephant in the room is Saudi Arabia’s gift of 1 million barrels a day in extra cuts. If the gift is snatched back, prices cannot do else but decline.”
    --Bjornar Tonhuagen, Rystad
  5. Nine_Ender


    Oil is above $62. No surprise given the inventory reports last few weeks. Oh wait ... .