Well, both scenarios seem unlikely at this moment. We traders do not even care what happens in two years. We care about next two days, or at most next two weeks. Even without Trump winning, US oil production is coming up nicely. We'll turn to balanced market this winter since all Hurricane Ida damages are repaired. We'll probably turn to supply/demand surplus next summer. For the traders who missed $6 nat gas price, just do not let $80 CL price get away....
It was interesting to see CL up about a dollar overnight with abundance of bearish news. Now it gave back all of that. Expect more choppy market. Expiration is up.