Crude light future prob 99.5% bearish today

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by seleukos, Feb 10, 2006.

  1. seleukos


    This is one opinion: probably it could interest someone. We report it because today Crude Light has, in our elaborations it has 99.5% probabilities to close doen on respect of yesterday's close that is 62.62.

    Good luck !

    Seleukos Automation Expert System Report 2006/02/10 07:58
    FFCL (62.6200) - Fut.Light Crude Oil Front
    In our elaborations over medium term trend, this instrument is now BULLISH: the investor could have bought some time ago just the instrument itself or a related call.
    If today the instrument should point below 62.1317, it could be convenient to close the opened operation if you are in a good profit.
    However the true new trend should begin if our instrument should move below 62.0696. In this case, it could be convenient to sell the underlying instrument or to buy a related put.
    For statistical information purpose only and avoiding every relation for the future, from 02/01/2002 if someone had suited exactly the methodology, it could have obtained approximatively a yearly result of category 1(not exceptional): in order to maximize the returns for this instrument it seems necessary to use intraday short term trading.
    Operations opened on observance of medium term instruments (see Tides on Seleukos site), should be managed for coherence observing the same medium term calculations avoiding to confuse them with short term suggestions: because we are speaking about two methods completely different, confusing the systems of one type with systems of the other type may generate some contradiction.
    [Tides analysis 20060210075353]
    Observing last 400 working days, this instrument has today the 0.5000% of probability to close over the yesterday's close (or at the same level).By obvious consequence, it has 99.5000% of probability to close below yesterday's close.
    Evaluating these probablities, a practical behavior could be to close the opened position just this morning ed eventually to reopen it this evening if truly the instrument will be gone down. If, instead, the instrument would not move along the forecasted direction, you could speculate if it would be convenient to wait for a day or two, before reopening the closed position.
    It could be relevant also to keep under control the general market situation.If all the market is becoming bullish, probably our instrument could do the same.
    [HotDogs and FPA analyses /]
    You should pay attention today at the under exposed prices: they could be ATTRACTORS for the underlying instrument and, if the exposed prices will be crossed quickly, we have a lot of probability that the instrument will return on such suddenly crossed price and move around it.
    Attractors which can mean a stronger behavior for the current bullish market(You can perhaps increment your long positions, buying the instrument itself or related calls):
    65.9005 - 65.5795 - 65.3810
    Attractors wich may confirm the existing bullishness:
    64.5405 - 64.2195
    Attractors revealing a sideway day, but the existing bullish trend is still alive (the ones with asterisks have more probabilities to be touched):
    63.7000 - **63.1805** - 63.0200 - **62.8595** - 62.3400
    Attractors suspicious for the exhaustion of the existing bullish market(follow it carefully):
    61.8205 - 61.4995
    Attractor which could denote a new bearish situation(probably, the best is to reduce your existing long position at least):
    60.6590 - 60.4605 - 60.1395
    The system would suggest, in theory, to open positions only when instrument is going to clearly quit an attractor and only after prices had 'parked' near the attractor itself for a reasonable time.
    Moreover, another thumb suggestion is, normally, that you should not open positions when prices are in the intermediate area between attractors.
    A technique to put some interesting and ungunned stop losses, could be to puth them a little above or a little below the attractors themselves.In this way you stop, if short, when prices are leaving the attractor to go higher. To do this, put stop a pair of ticks over the attractor upstanding.
    Obviously, viceversa if you are long.
    [Robur analysis /]
    RESISTANCES AND SUPPORTS CALCULATED USING PROPRIETARY METHODS (as the matter is psycho-metric, on the relative projections, not necessarily the supports from last three months should be larger than the ones from last month: they are prices memorized [according with our research] by the operators).
    On respect of last operational month(21 days), the nearest resistance should be:
    64.9358 and the nearest support should be at:62.3000
    Observing last three working months (55 days), the nearest resistance should be:
    64.1454 and the nearest support should be found at:62.5840
    It could also be useful to check,if the case, resistances and supports against attractors: if there are little differences, you could perhaps prefer attractors prices.
    [Ares analysis /]
    We remember the the last market day (2006/02/09) the opening was 62.8000 and last price (sometimes meaningless ?) was 62.5000. If you are interested in, read this: a useful settlement price that we are using could be 62.6200. The latter price should be considered, accordingly to our theories, as a very important attractor. We suggest to prefere this one if it should be near a regular attractor.
    Seleukos © - FFCL - Fut.Light Crude Oil Front
    Seleukos Automation Expert System Report © 2006/02/10 07:58
  2. How can you give a number as precise as 99.5% with 400 days of data ?
  3. Just imagine, if you refine the hot dog and tide analysis a little bit, you might be able to get this close to 100%.
  4. seleukos


    Because we evaluated the 'runs'.
    In the last 400 days a pattern as this one has always had a bearish day as conclusion.
    Obviously we are not sure: we really will go short if it will be between 64.082 and 62.082 exactly at 10:40 pm (New York time).
    If we will open, we will be stopped in profit at 1.2% below the opening and stopped on loss above 2.1% on opening.
    Otherwise, we will close at 2 pm NY time.
    As you can see, we stay out from opening moment and from close moment.
  5. Let me state it another way. Just to say "99.5%" means that 1 out of 200 times when you meet such a pattern, market is going up rather than down. Out of 400 days of data, this means it happened twice if the pattern actually appeared 400 times, i.e. "every day".... As it sure does not, you cannot say "99.5%"....

    In conclusion, the statistical significance of such a number is near 0... :(
  6. seleukos


    No it is not so: this simply is meaning that in the last 400 days (if this is the population, but really it is a sample) this situation NEVER had a bullish day as follower.
    Obviously, if today Crude Light goes up, this pattern will change.
    But for the moment, we will go short. As we replied elsewhere, only if it will be in a range.
  7. seleukos


    We have a list of patterns.
    In the last 400 days, when a certain configuration has happened in crude light (it happedn 8 times about) for height times (always in this reality) the next day crude light went down.
    So we say that it 'always' goes down.
    Obviously, as written elsewhere, we are waiting that opening is in a correct range (64.08 | 62.08) and this not in the true opening, but exactly after 40 minutes (10:40 am New York time)
    moreover, stop loss is in place.

    Nevertheless in the last 400 days, it always went down. Surely it is a sample, but the problem is: why not more than 400 days?

    Really, with a Chi square analysis, you know that you cannot go on the past too much, otherwise the Chi square refuses your sample.

    So last 400 days are somewhat a population and not a sample: but the boundary is not clear.

    We prefer to operate in instruments that in the last 400 days always reacted in a certain manner to a pattern.
    In every case we are not sure (crystal ball...) We thing that in this forum every one should present ideas: terminology is not clear in statistics, because the Great Numbers Law is not yet clear. (We are not english so probably Great Numbers Law is told differently)
  8. empee


    I'm long (but I was short from 66), I coverd 64 and now long from 62.60
  9. Buy1Sell2


    Unfortunately , it is time now for me to ask the question that I always must ask. Where are the realtime posting of trades? This must be done if you are to arrive in our minds with any degree of credibility. Until then, I think this is gobbledy gook.
    #10     Feb 10, 2006