Apparently you missed the point. The article you posted was 3 1/2 months ago, when oil was above $50 per bbl, and you intimated to go long. *shrugs*
No, you missed the point. Three months ago I was very bullish. SINCE then, cracks got whacked and gasoline spreads rolled over hard. I have not been bullish the past few months and won't be bullish till gasoline spreads and cracks catch a bid.
So has oil gone higher based upon your spreads, since April? Did your crack spreads predict the drop to the current level? If anyone was long in April, they'd not be happy right now. And throughout this "entire rambling thread" I've said that crude is screwed. I know nothing, because obviously, your super guys were all correct, Crude has shot through the roof. I must be wrong. My charts are from China and so must be defective. Crack spreads and forward-curve fitting? Uh huh. Look how well that worked out this time.
I found it amusing today that Vonnie Quinn (Bloomberg European Close) got tongue-tied and said "carbohydrons" when talking about oil equities and NYMEX instead of "hydrocarbons".
That's why most "experts" here who go around saying how much they know won't even go out on a limb to put some numbers on their hypotheses. Look at how much everyone is beating up Volente in his S&P top threads, but nobody ever says where they are buying, even though they are convinced its going higher. Everyone is an expert until they are asked to show an entry, target and stop.
This is a nice graphic showing the price of oil adjusted for inflation. I think 20-30$ is the price it should be at (unless a major supplier is taken offline) OPEC no longer has the power it used to
Oil-Hedged MLP ETF Launches at Propitious Time Amplify ETFs launched an MLP fund June 1 that aims to hedge out oil price exposure. By Amey Stone Updated June 22, 2017 3:16 p.m. ET Investors in master limited partnerships can probably immediately grasp the appeal of this idea: An MLP fund that hedges out exposure to oil prices. Christian Magoon, CEO of Amplify ETFs, was working on the Amplify YieldShares Oil-Hedged Master Limited Partnership ETF (AMLX) for well over a year. But it was just a coincidence that the fund launched on June 1. Crude and MLPs have swooned since then. Just Tuesday, oil entered bear market territory, down more than 20% since late February. The Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) is down 10% in the past month. Since launch, AMLX has outperformed AMLP by about 5 percentage points, says Magoon. That's still a loss, but less than the pure MLP index. AMLX's goal is to reduce the volatility of investing in MLPs, says Magoon -- not to go up when MLPs are going down. The fund shorts crude oil futures to hedge exposure. Magoon's AMLX ETF is still unproven, even though its first three weeks and years of back-testing look promising -- as does the concept. http://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-hedged-mlp-etf-launches-at-propitious-time-1498158963
Feeling like a bottom. Not sure, but a $5 bounce up is not unreasonable before X-Mas. *clucks*. Just a feeling.