The use of the term 'instantaneous' was a double entendre of your own origin a few posts ago - I would never have introduced the term into this discussion. Commodity Commercials will be the first market participants to adjust price valuations according to fundamental change into the markets, IMO that is a certainty.
Even so, that does not preclude fundamentals from being fully reflected in prices over a period of time. My only point was that price at any given moment does not necessarily discount and fully reflect all of the relevant fundamentals. If anything, the relationship is fairly more tenuous, as suggested by Soros and his reflexivity theory.
Thank you for the article. But we've seen this shit many times before. Anyone remember last year's "lower-than-expected" demand for gasoline? http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/03/anot...asoline-demand-disappointed-says-analyst.html There has to be a way to find a decent edge in CL. If it cannot be found in Crude, which is highly liquid and somewhat "predictable", where else can it be found? There are SOOOO many factors affecting the price of CL, petroleum distillates notwithstanding. How do we find our edge? It has to be out there dammit!
Yeah, and if you knew how to chart the Gasoline Crack Spread, you would have seen that what this August 03, 2016 article stated afterwards was clearly illustrated in the chart for TWO MONTHS PRIOR. It was a very good sell signal. From the beginning of June to the end of July in 2016, they sold off the Gas Crack Spread. HARD. Conversely, the Gasoline Crack Spread has rallied very hard the past three weeks. Gasoline has been outperforming CL bigly.
I believe the edge in every market is management of risk. When you are wrong, lose a little and when right, reap full benefit.
Traders, in my view, spend a lot of time on analyzing markets and their fundamentals and I just don't think that those are important at all. Focus on context and price. It can all be seen on a chart.--Ishmael