Crude is making a possible head and shoulder move

Discussion in 'Energy Futures' started by Projectionist, Nov 28, 2010.

  1. A lot has happened overnight. We start with Crude. Yesterday we placed a bet when Crude WTI was trading $84.50s and the high was $84.61 which as we wrote in our article [Revisiting [They say when you don’t fall on bearish news, you’re not bearish] that “$84.61 which is shy by 16 cents only from what might change Crude’s game altogether. Would we bet against 16 cents then? We would at least for today and going all the way tomorrow into European trading however after that we must revisit our bets. To us the upside in crude might be short lived if Crude doesn’t test the validity of $83.3s which it swept by yesterday, only then shall we know whether the cat is out of the hat or not.” Well, as we write it seems the cat really isn’t out of the box! Yes, it isn’t. Crude has sharply declined today and spared no mercy for the validity level of $83.3 as it trades lower and just above $83 per barrel. We still cannot explain why and what happened that Crude WTI shot up the way it did and then managed to hold the high grounds too. As in if it was a reaction to the standoff between the North and South Korea in the Korean peninsula then it came much later. We’d not waste our intellect into understanding what caused it because it is now history. What is important is what lies ahead. The pull back from $80 per barrel now only makes our case stronger of Crude WTI trading down to $73s. Our previous estimates was of $76 but now keeping in view this pull back [which we’d term as a violation] we see crude WTI trading much lower, lower by $3 from our previous estimates at $73s.

    As we write Crude is tightly hugging $83.10s after earlier posting a low of $82.76. The current low now seems immaterial to us as we look past slightly lower to $82.64s as next supportive region. A break below $82.64 would surely result in Crude WTI losing another $1 from thereon but that break to us wouldn’t be as simple as was the one of validity region or $83.3s. Both blends of Crude, Brent and WTI are maintaining a safe spread for now at $2 per barrel which we take as one of our indicators.

    We expected the commodity markets to be eventful this coming week, seems like the fireworks start from today only. We then sit tight and are eye-ing $81.5s for Crude as the first of the target/test region. Once that is attained the odds would surely be much higher for lower lows then for higher highs. Markets are going to get volatile and they won’t take any prisoners so be very careful out there.