Crude high price seems dumb

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by silk, Jan 6, 2010.

  1. silk


    From todays inventory report.

    Domestic production up 9.1% year over year.
    Net imports down 15.4% year over year

    Products supplied past week up 0.3% year over year. And thats even with crazy cold weather. Without that extra heating oil demand would be down year over year.

    So production is way up. Demand is flat at best. And the need to import is way down.

    But still we have to pay Opec $83 which is 30% above what we paid in 2007 when all world economies were firing strong. This can't be rationalized. Refineries have been mothballed all over the world because of poor demand. But yet the price of crude goes higher and higher.

    Don't even get me started about copper price with its record setting string of 70 days in row of inventory increases. But yet Copper closed at a record for any Jan 6th date in histroy.

    Seems Bubblelicious.
  2. silk


    And nobody tell me its because the dollar is weak. Its been $1.43 Euro for few years now.
  3. Voice your opinion and get short!! I'm liking $60 by March. But then $95 in June (with a stronger dollar?!?). I kinda wish it would go to $120 and cause imaginary inflation, it couldn't be real because wages aren't rising. When it got above 82.30 I knew I should have went long but listening to the damn news messed my head up. But getting short here is how you can get rich take small positions with 3 dollar stops. Risk 3k to make 10k. My new years resolution was to only trade the CL based on what I see on the daily.
  4. I don't think stocks or futures follow anything anymore but the overall sentiment of GS and likes. I remember reading (not sure if on elite) where anyone who followed the norms like MA, Bolinger, Parabolic lost hugh as they were rendered useless.

    I think it stated on directional volume worked.
    The moves like today have nothing to do with the news it comes down to where the market markers, GS and the likes want it to be.

    CFTC, SEC could care less of the manipulation and will always just talk.

  5. That's it exactly.
  6. S2007S


    Oil along with all other commodities are completely inflated, everytime I tune into cnbc or read an article related to china or any other emerging market the talk is commodities, some of the commodity stocks are up Hundreds of %%% over the last 6-12 months. As for oil its headed for another bubble. Oil at $150 was a joke and even at that time the economy was doing a lot better than it is now, anyone who thinks oil can keep an upward trend and start to head back up to 100, 120, 130 and even $200 is a fucking fool. Even if it did get that high it would collapse 10x quicker than it did when it dropped from $150 to low $30's. Demand will drop and the economy will sink even deeper into recession. Oil cannot sustain these levels in such a weak economy being propped up by stimulus money.
  7. Cheese


    A cartel, OPEC, controls 40% of oil output so as a result there can never be a cheap oil price save only for short periods when OPEC is adjusting downwards its quotas under excess supply pressure.
    This is obvious but it does not stop politicians and ET's conspiracy theorists from blaming manipulation by the oil companies, hedge funds, Wall Street, etc.
  8. USD down

    Crude up

    Where's the confusion?
  9. Stop complaining. The best thing you can do right now is to buy march Brent and sell Feb WTI.. There's a "FED dollar bubble" but also there's a freight logistic reality. Also you should short the April Heat Crack and Buy the may RBOB Crack..

    Just keep it quite.

  10. Your biggest confusion is that you are a demagogue.. Now I understand why you infest ET with your ideological craps. You don't even Know how the markets works.

    Have you ever heard about "rollovers" ??. You sack of shit!

    #10     Jan 7, 2010