Keep bearish. This will be my revised outlook as I was flipping flopping on some other forums. So count in my short at 69. Bear!
You can be sure the commodity index funds, which caused much of this contango to begin with, are looking into this problem of negative carry. I suppose these funds are already spreading their book over longer dated futures or are taking correlated positions that have less of a contango problem.
I think the risk premium will start to decline over the summer as the hurricane season plays out, particularly after september ends and high gas prices might be hazardous to incumbent's health. OTOH, a nice hurricane hit might spike it but good... limited risk on either side based upon time IMHO.
crude couldnt break the downward trend channel today to the upside. As of right now, you have to sell, save any fundamental news that would affect the price. There seems to be no direction to this mkt in the last month or so, very choppy...
crude will make new highs in the next 2 weeks. It will go up for the next 10 days in a row on its way to 82 dollars. Fundamentals will have nothing to do with this.
curious thing... Iran...the axis of evil..state sponsor of terror...overnite.....has all of a sudden become eligible for US subsidized light water nuclear (nu*Q*lar) reactors....amazing what tight US election numbers will do .....
also amazing what the right friends can achieve; Iran is good pals with Russia and China and the US military is spread t h i n