I'm still bullish on only for a couple of reasons: 1) I'm showing a up sloping trendline holding very well over the past couple of weeks 2) The price-action has been bullish the past couple of days ( overnight/morning had a down move, but the bulls had enough to bring it back up) 3) I had resistance levels at 73.80 and 74.175 and it broke both of those ( actually 74.175 is in the process of being broken today so far 4) Since no ne highs have been made in the past couple days, a close over 74.475 will make a new high close, ( which it is in the process of doing) 5) Next resistance level i have is up around 75.860, so that leaves enough upside room to remain bullish. 6) Only thing that is concerning me is that stochastics is grossly oversold, but stochastics are terrible in a trending market. Hope that answers why I'm bullish -Nick
We're bullish because you're still calling tops, over and over, again and again Breakout to new highs, I'm remaining bullish, I've owned oil stocks, might enter fuel futures(the only thing that I can trade locally) next week.
I don't "keep" calling tops...I'm calling one now though...the last time i called a top the market dropped about 2 1/2 bucks over the next two days...didn't drop as much as I hoped in the longer run...but it was a 4% move nonetheless..also when I call tops...its not meant to be an intraday top...moreso the roll of the hill on a daily chart..so I take it...for next week I am the only bear?
Who cares if you call 4% tops? Did you trade it? Did you enter in the next big move upwards? So if you made 4% and missed 16%, isn't it a bit like dropping the watermelon to grab a handful of sunflower seeds? I do agree it's extended, and it might drop, but what I'm looking for is a trend, and strong trends defy logic and oscillators(as well as bears)
I'll share with you one of my experiences(a few actually) I used to often try to call tops. When gold broke above $475 last year, I bought gold stocks. When gold hit $540, I felt a climax was here, it eased to the $530s and I sold. The next day, my gold stocks kept falling, gold hit $500. But I did not re-enter. What happened next? I missed 100% profits on these gold stocks as they shot through the roof. I also tried picking tops on the Chinese index in a new bull market, after it was up 20% from bottom, I was ignoring other indicators and "playing" it safe. Of course, I was proven wrong. These conservative mistakes of omission probably cost me 200-300% in portfolio growth, so I'm not too eager to be a top-calling trader anymore.
If I were trading oil stocks, obviously, I would be watching oil prices. I look for 1)Excessive sentiment. Though that doesn't make me sell at once, I will cut down on positions at times 2)More importantly, I will look for technical reasons to sell. I.e. in Feburary, oil formed and confirmed a small double top at $68 resistance, so I exited my long oil positions. For stocks, I use O'Neil's system(watching the market, the sector, and selling at 20% if a stock gets there within 2 months, holding if 20% within 2 months, distributions, breaking of support, climax run-ups) you get the drift . Currently experimenting with a retracement of profits. And a 8-10% stop on all initial long positions...