Bond market is right, just a bit early. Bond Bull market must follow equity bull market, to allow for efficient transfer of wealth between generations. Therefore, before, there must be bond bear market. You long bonds still? House of Saud assists House of Bush. Larger factors going on there. Think long term - 20 years. Cryptic fragments yield poor writing grades however.
Interestingly the DJIA has made a 75 year record 7 days up last week on lower than average volume. Oil is making new highs. Volatility is more than a 10 year low. Seems to me a shelf--"cliff" is forming. Look out below. Everybody's bullish. That's when the risk is greatest. YEEEEHAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
Oil is being used as a proxy for gold by some now. Entites are speculating in oil now for the first time ever. Oil just needs to spike up to screw the shorts and then it will be ready to fall. Oil inventories are higher then ever. The goverment stockpile is full now. This high prices are going to really cut back on consumption. People are just going to have to get use to talking on their cell phone at home. John
Bond market is right, just a bit early. Bond Bull market must follow equity bull market, to allow for efficient transfer of wealth between generations. Therefore, before, there must be bond bear market. You long bonds still<p>I do not have a position in bonds, but if they reinstitute the 30 yr, I could be a buyer when rates hit 7.5%. I am not looking for a trade merely some income.
agreed. that's exactly what I'm seeing as well. hi energy costs are -boolish- ??? like the other poster said... man, I gotta get some of whatever yer smokin'... the amount of "speculative" money in the oil market is so small compared to the stock market, that it ain't gonna make any difference if in fact it moves to stocks....which is pretty damn doubtful anyway. also, there is a HUGE difference between now and 1974. MASSIVE DEBT.... look at the total debt we owe; gubmint, private, and corpse; relative to 1974. DEBT is what has kept the boat afloat. It's inaccurate to say that expensive energy isn't having an effect. Also, in the larger economic picture, it's irrelevant whether oil sits at 60, or 50. It's still MUCH more expensive than 1-2 yrs ago. Also consider the time-factor on contracts....even if it drops back now, $50-60 oil is -already- baked into the economic cake; via the past year's worth of contract pricing. Finally, it's stupid to say that the price is due only to "speculation". The supply/demand numbers are plain as day. Consumption of 83.5 mmbbl/day vs production of 84....with consumption projected to rise to 86 in only the next 90 days. And if I recall, that Q4 estimate was itself just raised again last week! You think that -production- is going to also rise to 86/day? Just like that? hee hee...riiiight. The naked truth is that world production is now effectively flat-topped. They CAN'T produce at a higher rate. Depletion is now running ahead of new supply coming onstream. and by the way, believing gubmint numbers on inventory (or GDP, UE, et al) is....is....geez, I can't think of a good enough way to express just how foolish that is.... Saudi's have announced big boost in production 20 freaking times now; and guess what? Zero increase. Ghawar is now pumping at least 30% water....possibly as much as 44%.... Look out above baby...cuz $100 oil is right around the corner...as soon as this winter in my estimation. By the way, P&F chart shows bullish on oil, with a target of $74 minimum, near-term. Russell's P&F yesterday said $80.... I don't have a lot of money in the broads, but what I do have there is now on the short side. we'll see possibly another shot at 1230-1250...and then downsy-daisy... ....or possibly even hard down starting tomorrow.... P/V patterns are too weird last week to make that call; for me anyway. But down is in our near-term future...that's my read anyway...for what little it's worth...
It wouldn't surpise me to see bonds crater. Inflation has been tame for so long that a reversal is likely due. And when bonds crater the multiples on stocks will likely crater too. I don't know when but sooner rather than later imo.