I have enjoyed this thread. Some of the posts are hilarious. My take on Crocs. The shoes are one of the ugliest creations I have ever seen. That being said they are incredibly comfortable. I am not kidding you put them on and you do not want to take them off. I mean I disregard all fashion sense and wear this things out in public just for the comfort. That being said no way I would own the stock. Might trade it. But as far as I can tell it does not rocket science to make these shoes. I could care less if I am wearing Crocs or whatever brand. Heck if Wal MArt makes a brand and they are comfortable I will wear those. Crocs will lose market share for this type of shoe even if the fad continues. Everyone will be making them and they will get dirt cheap. You wear these things for comfort not to identify with a brand.
Exactly... anyone and their mom could open a plant to reproduce these shoes... unless people are so materialistic that they absolutely must have to have a crocadile logo on them.
Yes I am long a substantial position as well, but i dont plan on holding it over the earnings announcement. going to play the run up tomorrow (hopefully) and sell before the close.
I love the way you guys view this company. That's why it's going higher for at least the near future. This is NOT a fad.. I can't believe people are still believing this. Take a look at the new line of womens shoes.. the new men's leather shoe on Crocs site... they are quickly moving towards more fashionable stuff on top of the main line that is still growing. This is a very smart management team and the ability to grow the brand outside of the normal "hole" shoes is very real. How many real shoe brands do we have out there that strive for comfort? Imagine fashionable comfort shoes. 28% growth next year? WAY too low. How about the fact that international sales are nearly outpacing US sales now? Wal-Mart knockoffs? Those things feel horrible.. same with Payless. Ask anyone, the knockoffs are cheaper for a reason. Yeah.. a "fad" that's going to do nearly 1B in sales this year. CROX growth will slow eventually and the stock price will fall but I don't think that's happening yet and I see money to be made. Maybe I have it all wrong but I have made very good money so far in 07 with CROX and I think we see near $100 before 08.
Bigcharts.com reports CROX stock trading at a new high record price yesterday. The Crocs web site shows lots of apparel in development. http://shop.crocs.com/c-2-apparel.aspx?reqid=2&reqProdTypeId=2&subsectionname=apparel The Crocs web site shows lots of footwear designs. http://shop.crocs.com/c-4-Footwear.aspx?reqid=4&reqProdTypeId=4&subsectionname=footwear This site reports price-points ranging from $149 to $299: <img src=http://shoeblogs.com/wordpress/images/fashioncroc.jpg \img> http://jezebel.com/gossip/croc_o_sh...bs-jellies-nah-its-all-about-crocs-266434.php This thread documents the growth of a small company from a trading perspective. Notice how fear and doubt are associated with the upward price trend.
Well that stung a bit for sure. To be brutally honest im not selling my shares. Yes, MGMT had a big hiccup in not being able to handle 30-40 million in inventory to some internation accounts. Demand outpaced MGMT's ability to get the product out. Im not happy but this is an easy problem to correct. Add in those additional 30 million and rev is around $280 mil and EPS is over .70 Long-Term.... 30-40% growth next year gives us earnings in the $2.70 range. Yes, growth is going to be slowing signifcantly from 100%+ this year but 30-40% (and they are probably sandbagging this) is nothing to sneeze at. 30x 2.70= $81 35x 2.70= $95 Yes, PE is higher than industry but at 30-40% it's still growing much faster. And if they get closer to $3.00 25x 3.00= $90 30x 3.00= $120 No, the stock isn't going to $100 before the end of the year but I still feel long-term this is a very good play. I also still believe the company can bridge the gap to more fashionable styles and find a strong niche in footwear for comfort. I didn't see a share AH's and I expect to see the PPS back into the $65 range in the next few trading sessions.