1) I'm not in CROX ... Been there, done that ... Haven't touched it for maybe 6 months. 2) I know they are an ugly sandal company fad with too much inventory. 3) BUT... At 12.50, 08 earnings of 1.70, thats a forward PE for FY08 of 7.35. Lets say they really bomb 09, and deliver .85 for entire FY09. Its still a 15 PE stock. So my question: 1) Is the street really pricing in a loss, or even a reversion to FY06 #s ($.87) for FY09 FY10 due to way these fads work? Looks like the stock price has always been ahead of the what the company has guided - tells me the channel check efficiency on the parties that trade this must be running quite nicely.
i like your thought process but you also have to factor in that growth is totally gone. the street will not give a 15 p/e to crox if they only earn .85/share in 09. just look at hlys and you have a comparable story. look at the multiples the street is giving them. granted not exactly the same but close enough.
CROX will eventually disappear and end up in the OTC market. If you want to gamble, go to Lasvegas and play craps or blackjack. You get free drinks and you might meet some hot chick and get laid in the process as well.
Nutrisystem has a PE less than 10 and has fallen from 70's to 19. PE means nothing once the momo players leave and sellers pound the shit out of it.
its too bad because they began to expand the product line but waaay too late. maybe a comeback story but not a quick one.