Crop Weather & Condition Thoughts ( Tuesday 07/03/2012 ).

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by kanellop, Jul 17, 2012.

  1. kanellop


    Hello to All.

    Exist the following News: .


    Tuesday 07/03/2012

    Crop Weather & Condition Thoughts

    A few thoughts on the crop ratings and drought situation. These will by no means be everything that could be said--which is another way of reminding you that you are welcome to post your thoughts at the end of this installment.
    First--through a simple math error, the magnitude of crop condition decline is not being publicized as widely as it could be. Many members of the ag information world in all their forms--reporters, brokers, advisory services--spoke of the July 2nd corn condition rating as "declining 8 percent to 48% good to excellent from 56% good to excellent last week"--or something like that.

    What this comment does not take into account is that these ratings are percentage points--not percent. To get the actual percentage decline, you divide 48 into 56 (this week's rating into last week's rating) and you come up with a number that is staggering--14 percent. THAT is the real rate of decline in the corn crop this week.

    Think of the reaction we would see if everyone said "The U.S. corn crop suffered a 14 percent drop in its conditions last week..." and etc etc. Now THAT'S your headline.

    Second but still on crop ratings--this week's 48% good to excellent total on corn is the lowest since the famous 1988 drought year. That year same time the G/EX total was 23% for corn. So, one might think that this year's crop prospect is quite a bit better than back in '88.

    But here's another detail that gets into the discussion--1988 was a year when there was still a hefty grain reserve program in effect. So while crop size was sharply lower than in 1987, the actual stocks to use ratio was not that low--because of grain reserves. That's obviously not the case this year with the "just in time" philosophy ruling the commodity world.

    And that's where the conversation gets into the areas of how much usage cutback and where will need to happen with demand levels where they are and supply shrinking like it is.

    Third--while the Eastern Corn Belt heat and moisture issues have been well-covered and certainly justifiably--the northwestern Corn Belt has had some big precipitation deficits to cope with as well.

    In Iowa, for example, the statewide June rainfall total was 2.99", just over half the average 5.02" amount. This was the 21st driest June in 140 years in Iowa. However--in the far northwestern part of the state it was much, much drier. Four locations--Sheldon, Sibley, Sanborn & Hawarden--had their driest June on record. The least precip of these four was at Sibley with just .36" for June. In 113 years of data, this breaks the previous dry-June record for Sibley IA of .96" back in June 1888.

    And in Sioux Center, the 2nd-driest June was logged with only .26". The record for driest months of June in Sioux Center is .15".

    And there's more. Here's how a farmer from northeastern Nebraska described things to me in an e-mail:

    "...3 tenths of an inch of rain in June. We planted early here to and have corn trying to tassel which by the way on some of it won't happen!!!...There is a lot of dryland corn shot already. By the end of this week most of the early corn will be done. Not reduced as some of the so-called "experts" claim. Done as in no combine needed!!

    This is not some small area. This isn’t a farmer crying wolf, it’s a fact!! If it's this bad out east I don’t know how we are only looking at 10 or so bushels off the national yield! In our area we are days away from 0!!!! If this doesn’t change soon as in yesterday be prepared for some real shocking actual yields...By the way yields in this area the past four years have averaged close to 200 bu an acre."

    So there you are. Some crop condition thoughts--also producer comments--and a few lines about that last time it was this dry and hot. You may have other details. If you do, feel free to chime in.


    Posted at 11:28AM CDT 07/03/12 by Bryce Anderson

    Here a Comment from me:

    I suggest to check and then to read and the Comments from People that exist in each New News Topic from that Internet Source.


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.