Yes I was stopped out yesterday. My strategy must include tight stops (limited capital) I want to get out very quickly if it doesn't work. I'm trying to keep it simple. I guess it was just a bad pick but it was below the MAs and recently gapped dow. At the time it seemed like a good idea. thank you!
You could get your $$ back by shorting it at the resistence, 90% of the trades were made at $36.40 before the drop, that's a huge resistence. Short it at $16.2-16.40 was pretty much a given. Short it when the bounce from $36 didn't reach the high of the day (confirmation). Not sure if it could go back to $36s again Good luck!
thanks. On a 15 min chart it looks like I would be shorting for the pullback and I've heard a novice shouldn't really do that, and look at the support (potential) now between 33-34 (daily chart) I'm confused..........thanks again, if you like, you can continue to guide me using this trade as an ex.
Here are some charts: (1) On the hourly chart, you can clearly see a negative divergence. The TA indicator (CCI-14) was lower low, but price was higher high, this negative divergence drove the price lower. (2) Expect the stock price to find support in 34 MA and 60 MA area, in this chart, it is around 34.6 to 34.30. (3) The current price is at 38.2% retracement from the recent high and low, the pink area is the support of the day. But you see it broke an asymmtrical triangle to the downside at $35.50. If the price won't hold 35.25, we're talking about $34.49 as the target price, this is the hourly point of control (POC), about 90% of the trades were at that price in the past day or two. It was the previous resistence, the resistence now serves as the support. (4) On the daily chart, the point of control (POC) is at $36.42, as you can see the price stopped right below it today. It is hard to pass that line because over 90% of the trades for the past several weeks were at that average price. Folks would be happy to sell at breakeven after waiting for a few weeks. (5) On the 15 minutes chart, it is trading right at a critical support, the price is right above the the 60 period MA: (6) The broke down of that asymmtrical triangle is more obvious on the 15 minutes chart. The 15 minutes chart says $34.5 - 34.7 appears next good support if $35.25 won't hold. (7) Notice on the daily chart, the technicals are just starting to bounce, means this is just a consolidation, it could go up after the consolidation is done. On the hourly chart, the MOMO line is still sitting on the top. If the price goes up from $25.25, have to be careful in shorting, the uptrend could resume.
wow..if I had seen those charts and analysis before I started trading I never would have tried...thats way too complicated for me ! What about the longer term trendline hitting 58.99 on 5/1/06 and 43.65 on 2/8/07 ? My bet would be it churns between 32 and 37 until it runs into that trendline end of this month and then gaps down again.
Whenever someone asks me to teach them how to trade, I am going to start by showing them these charts!!!
pkny, today ASF moved exactly as what I expected. I guess the charts do have a use. Look at the narrow trading range after the big drop in the first hour. It closed at $34.74, right at a critical POC line (Point of Control), the day low was at 50% fibonacci retracement of the recent swing high and low. Isn't it amazing fibonacci really works? I would like to hear these wisemen's words on how to trade stocks.
Penny Thanks for taking the time. I plan on using charts almost exclusively, I will review your posts. I don't know if you have discussed you charting setup but I will search for your past posts. have a great weekend everybody
pkny, I've a journal, feel free to check, I post all my trades each day: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=92131&perpage=6&pagenumber=46