Critique my trade please!

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by pkny, May 1, 2007.

  1. pkny


    I would much appreciate if any experienced trader would respond with opinions on my decision to short ASF.

    -It is a swing trade

    -made decision last night (daily chart, looked weak, breaking support, below MAs)

    -got short today but it went against me. There is a tight stop on.

    As a novice any feedback would help. Thank you!
  2. gov


    Hummm, that is a tough one. I think you have the direction correct in the long run; I could see this trade down to 19 or 20 dollar range. But, it is an entry point that I don't usually take, simply because there can be quite a bit of heat between now and when it goes down. I would not expect it to trade any above 34.80, but the problem is it could and still be a valid trade. I guess that's what I am trying to say; you have entered in a place where the stop that would be desired to tell you it's not working is quite far. Any trade above 37.75 is death. Something up nearer to 37 would have been the entry I would have looked at.

    On the other hand, it could reject the lows here and start to go up. Lotta bad news already in this stock. Has a lot of support and that gap to the left...
    Best of luck with this one.
  3. I don't know anything about the stock. There was a 50/200 day crossover, and the weekly parabolic sar says be short. I would set a stop around $37.50. Check the fundamentals and beware of earnings surprises.
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  4. target0


    i have a couple of comments. the daily chart does look lower, but the weekly is in a support area that may present a near term problem. i like the next time frame up to confirm. also, hourly shows the gap last week was bought pretty strongly and retraced about 2/3. i think this could really go either way in the next week. i would assume based on what you said, that your stop is around 35.50, so not really much you can do but let it play out

    good luch with it.
  5. Since you mentioned this is a swing trade and with a tight stop. Can you reshort it at higher prices if you stopped out?

    If I were you, I would put an even tighter stop at $34.55 to protect from further loss. Chances are, if it can pass $34.4, it could go much higher. If it goes to $36s and cannot pass the resistence, reshort it again on weakness.

    I don't know about this stock, I look at the stock purely from the price chart.

    On the weekly, it certainly has support ($31-31.23 and $33). The pivot line for the weekly is @ $34.20 and resistence at $36.40s.

    On the daily, the support is at $32.83 and pivot line is @ $36.40s with the resistence at $34.11.

    On the hourly chart, the stock broke a symmetrical triangle, it is trading right above the hourly pivot line $33.9, the resistence is at $34.34. You can clearly see the resistences. There is a quite possibility - if the stock is trading above $34.4, it'll try to ascend and fill the gap to $36.40 (see the second hourly chart).

    Good luck!

    Hourly chart 1:

    Hourly chart 2 (if breaks $34s):


    Daily chart:


    Weekly chart:

  6. pkny


    thanks everybody

    last week closed lower and there was a consolidation on the weekly chart, no? I was thinking that was bearish, speculating that it would keep moving in the direction of the recent gap, after consolidating.

    I think I'm focusing too much on very recent price action, from what I'm hearing.
    It was at 37 and gapped down hard after a gap up to what happened to be the 200 MA so I saw a big change in sentiment and rejection at the 200.....

    I'm trying for holds 2 - 5 days so not focusing on enough history, possibly?

    thanks again
  7. gov


    FWIW I think you are doing a fine job. Sometimes we all get into trades that don't work, but the fact that you analyzed it and took a shot is commendable. Asking for advice in a reasoned manner is also pleasant. Now, you should already have had a stop in mind, so manage the trade and learn something from it. No one can know the future of any trade, and sometimes the best of setups fail; sometimes the dumbest moves are rewarded. The important thing is to learn something from every trade if possible. I am thinking it might go your way tomorrow, but who knows. Manage the trade.
  8. pkny


    thanks for spending the time to provide what I feel is very constructive criticism. Have a great week everyone!
  9. I hope you're doing okay or covered your short position as the charts suggested. ASF is trying to fill that $36s gap after $34.20 resistence was passed. Maybe you can short it again after the gap is filled and meet the upper trendline.


  10. $36.4, it is very close to a short entry, wait for the resistence is established and confirmed.

    #10     May 3, 2007