Fridays finals were +22 net on three winners. Hit rate thus far 57%. Avg win .183 Avg loss -.125. Will re-eval stop distance after about 50 trades in blotter. Right now stops set at 1/2% for protection. But so far avg MAE on wins is -.18%. Id bet ultimately I can tighten to around -.375% and get better results. But we will see. No idea why time stamp on blotter is wacky. I am trading mid mornin, usually 1030-11am start-15:30 EST only. Want to note that as soon as I have further confidence in results I will size up slowly. Next increment will probably be $50.00 risk per.
Click on your username and select preferences to change the timezone messages are displayed in. Everyone else is likely already seeing the correct time ....relative to their own timezones. Sorry, just realized it's your blotter that's miss-stamped. If adjusting your brokers time preferences doesn't fix it (when imported into excel) then consider hiding that cell and populating the cell next to it with that value plus or minus whatever offset is required to calibrate it correctly.
12 8 14 Only able to trade for about 2 hours today. 4 trades. 2 Wins 2 Losses. Netted 8.37. I would say at this pace that by Jan 15th I have some good information to build on regarding how I think stocks are trading. And how to approach better, more importantly.
Strong stocks are for buying. And weak stocks are for selling. But sometimes its all chop to me. 8 trades. 7 losers. 1 winner. 1 scratch...went 1% my way set stop to BE, came back to entry. 24.82 avg loss. 72.90 avg win. -101 net. Good thing for the one winner I was able let have some slack... So far it seems that my avg winner goes only a maximum of .30% against me, with the average running .15%. and lowest being .03%. I may be able to easily drop to .30% instead of .50% stops and save money. Another few days will tell for sure.
Good thing for the one winner I was able let have some slack... So far it seems that my avg winner goes only a maximum of .30% against me, with the average running .15%. and lowest being .03%. I may be able to easily drop to .30% instead of .50% stops and save money. Another few days will tell for sure.[/quote] Wouldn't you need a much larger sample size to even start to think that what you see in that win column has ANY meaning at all. It just seems to me that to even talk about "my average winner" makes no sense at all ... at this stage.
Wouldn't you need a much larger sample size to even start to think that what you see in that win column has ANY meaning at all. It just seems to me that to even talk about "my average winner" makes no sense at all ... at this stage.[/quote] In short of course you are right. But, I was referencing avg move against me before its a win thus far, not winning number itself. I also measure mae/mfe in all trade outcomes and re-organize risk according to them as I roll along. But yes, statistically nothing means nothing yet. But as a journey, as I stated this journal would be. it is highly significant. Basically all the day trading I have ever done was similar in nature. Trading static and attempting to catch outliers and let them run. The hit rate is low always so from day one in a new venture it is paramount that I minimize risk per loser. So as data grows so does confidence. But I still need to track as it comes out to me. So this journal is like an open air mic that cant be deleted...I need this as my sounding board. I will say much that doesnt fit the mold or trading cliches I hope. I used the same exact method learning to extract money from ES at topsteptrader. Started with no data, and by the end honed down risk right to a sweet spot. Thats the goal here. Thanks for the post Swan Noir
In short of course you are right. But, I was referencing avg move against me before its a win thus far, not winning number itself. I also measure mae/mfe in all trade outcomes and re-organize risk according to them as I roll along. But yes, statistically nothing means nothing yet. But as a journey, as I stated this journal would be. it is highly significant. Basically all the day trading I have ever done was similar in nature. Trading static and attempting to catch outliers and let them run. The hit rate is low always so from day one in a new venture it is paramount that I minimize risk per loser. So as data grows so does confidence. But I still need to track as it comes out to me. So this journal is like an open air mic that cant be deleted...I need this as my sounding board. I will say much that doesnt fit the mold or trading cliches I hope. I used the same exact method learning to extract money from ES at topsteptrader. Started with no data, and by the end honed down risk right to a sweet spot. Thats the goal here. Thanks for the post Swan Noir[/quote] Given that it is a proven method for you then you would be foolish to do it any other way. Plus you are clearly regarding the data as not statistically significant yet still significant in terms of how you like to adjust course. Good luck ... not that you'll need it. Reapply what you know works for you is always a smart move!!
12 10 14 6 trades. 4 losers. 1 winner. 1 scratch. -22.74 avg loss. 124.80 win. 29.79 net Another interesting day. 2-(BWA,DRI)straight up losers from start to finish. 1- (PX)I mistakenly placed the stop to tight, and that cost me $30 net by days end, never tapped the proper one, those are the stingers... 1- (FSLR), got short, then stopped at high tick post entry then she collapsed but good. No heart break there though, plan was solid. That has happened to me before, and it will again. One winner - BWA I got short and let her ride a bit.