it is difficult to say where things are heading from here. it is definitely not over. we start year two of the crisis with the collapse of 3 major players, FNM, FRE, LEH. plus just in time sale of MER. plus AIG bailed out. two questions: who is next? i would suppose there will be a small series of small players going belly up and firesold to competitors in both banks and insurers. not because of recent bancruptcies, but for the same reason they got caught. i believe many insurers will be forced to show what is going in their hold to maturity portfolios. and their will be plenty of structured credit. second the oil price plays a crucial role in everything IMO. it is the only thing that can keep inflation low and the tools for the central banks in place. i am astonished by the strong dollar and relatively weak gold. and if there was any way to short the fed, i'd love to do that. what was missing in the crisis so far was the infamous blood on the street. now there is. on wall street itself it can get hardly worse. a new order of things is coming there. i could believe that the current levels make banks an attractive buy. the insurance sector might have the worst still ahead. broad index wise the next two years are at (very) best sideways. the VIX seems to find a center of peace pretty sharp at 20, with some unrest lifting him to 25 and anxiety to 35. just some thoughts. please share yours, but stay at topic if possible. thnx.